In an increasingly polarized America, one public policy issue with decades of unresolved and widely divergent opinions has been southern border immigration into America.
On one side are those who feel strongly that deportations of every immigrant who has not followed long established, but not enforced immigration laws, are long overdue, necessary, and proper.
On the other side are those who feel strongly that mass deportations of southern border immigrants who have not earned legal immigration status is not feasible, needed, or proper.
One thing is irrefutable.
Southern border immigration was a huge issue, if not THE issue in the 2024 presidential and congressional elections, when Donald Trump won the Presidency for a second nonconsecutive term and Republicans secured majorities in both houses of Congress.
Recently, Harry Enten, chief data analyst at left of center CNN did a deep dive on the current state of this issue during the height of the protests in Los Angeles.
The Columbia Journalism Review calls Enten “a new generation of political journalists focusing on data-driven journalism instead of reporting from the campaign trail.”
Enten has reported that no group has moved more sharply to the right on immigration than southern border immigrants who went through the long and arduous process to become an American citizen.
They followed the rules and waited patiently for the process to be done. They filled out forms, took citizenship tests, paid fees, and often spent years separated from family while following U.S. immigration law to the letter.
According to Enten, since 2020 this group of immigrants have shifted their partisan allegiance toward Republicans by a large margin.
In 2020, Democrats held a 32-point lead among these voters on the issue of who best to address southern border immigration issues.
Today, Republicans are up by a 40-point lead resulting in Enten concluding bluntly, “This group of voters in the American electorate believes that “the Democrats don’t have a clue on the issue of immigration.”
Enten also suggests, “Trump is begging for a fight on this because he knows what he’s doing so far is working with the American electorate. There is no issue on which Trump is doing so much better than he was in his first term, more than the issue of immigration.”
Enten maintained other polls affirm his conclusions. He cites comparable results from CBS and from Ipsos, a multinational research firm headquartered in Paris.
Enten says, “No matter what poll you look at, no matter which way you cut it, the American public is with the Republicans. The American public is with Trump.”
Not necessarily and certainly not guaranteed for the long term.
In reviewing survey results, one must remember they are a snapshot at a given point in time.
American voters are often inconsistent and are always unpredictable. Their views on any and all public policy issues are subject to change dramatically.
After relatively peaceful nationwide “No King “protests, right of center Fox News engaged Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster, and Chris Anderson, a Democratic pollster, for a survey.
Their survey results included an unexpected shift by unaffiliated (independent) voters on the issue of widely publicized ongoing searches for illegal immigrants led by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents.
Those unaffiliated voters are now expressing concern that ICE efforts are “heavy-handed and cast the deportment net too broadly”.
As I write this, there is breaking news on American military action in Iran.
That will have a profound impact on the results of any future current events polling results, regardless of who conducts the surveys.
For now, the range of issues and their current interest intensity by respondents to the Shaw and Anderson polling are:
85% of the survey respondents were extremely or very concerned about the future of America.
84% of the survey respondents were extremely or very concerned about inflation.
80% of the survey respondents were extremely or very concerned about government spending.
78% of the survey respondents were extremely or very concerned about Iran.
69% of the survey respondents were extremely or very concerned about antisemitism.
67% of the survey respondents were extremely or very concerned about immigration.
The mid-term general elections are less than 18 months from now.
It will be interesting to see which issues if any of the above, or new ones yet to emerge, will have the greatest impact on voter views, turnout, and choices in the midterm elections.
Donald Trump will not be on the ballot, but midterm voters will decide party control of the U.S. House and the U.S. Senate during the last two years of the Trump administration.
David Reel is a public affairs and public relations consultant in Easton.
