The Republican Party that was stood up by Abraham Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt and more recently Dwight Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan no longer exists. It is no longer a Party where political rivalry evolves into strength because today’s default position is to punish dissent.
It is not premature to wonder how the Party’s voters might discern talent as Trump is succeeded. He is in his late 70s and cannot be reelected.
What will voters look back on? The pocketbook is the answer and tariffs as a vehicle to make America more prosperous is a bizarre policy. Tariffs to narrowly protect strategic industries might make sense but as an all-purpose tool, history and today’s stock market push back.
And to take on our most immediate neighbors by violating trade agreements while demeaning their leadership raises questions about competency that were asked by Republicans attacking Joe Biden.
Sure, America has a big stick, but as Teddy Roosevelt advised, “Speak softly and carry a big stick”. Trump’s stick is big, although getting smaller, but he seems incapable of speaking softly. Brow-beating Vladimir Zelensky as the cameras rolled was a definitional moment.
One of the strangest moves by the President is putting Elon Musk out-front. Musk is characteristic of the Tech Bros—smart but lacking in common sense and empathy.
Musk is as bad at politics as he is good at tech ventures. Earlier this week he called Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona “a traitor” because of his support for Ukraine. Kelly, a former naval commander and astronaut is a true patriot. Perhaps Musk, a South-African-American, needs a course in patriotism. A real patriot would now say “I’m sorry.” But that is not the Trump or Musk way. And as Vice-President JD Vance demeans Zelensky he needs a tutorial in courage.
The Trump beginning has been mostly a flood tide. He has projected strength. His energy level is outstanding. He has been decisive and often in ways popular with the MAGA crowd, insisting, for example, that we change the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America.
Vladimir Putin has been eating it up—ice cream with a cherry on top. Putin, an egregious imperialist, can cite Trump’s verbal ambitions to take over Canada, the Panama Canal and Greenland to justify his own conduct. And as negotiations to end the war in the Ukraine take place, Trump’s tell is a deuce of clubs in the upcoming card game.
Flood tides turn and low tides reveal. President Trump is now saying that we might have to endure a recession to get to his holy grail. Well if you are worth billions of dollars downturns are not all that difficult, but reflect on this: the Wall Street Journal has cited recent data that show 10% of Americans consume 50% of annual consumption. In short, the great majority of people have to work very hard to make ends meet.
Social issues have been very helpful to Republicans as Democrats have often turned on traditional morality. But, political history shows that kitchen table issues prove to be more pivotal.
So what does the low tide reveal: a political version of dead fish and rotting seaweed.
- Assaults on free speech
- Infantilizing Congress with Executive Orders that undermine it while empowering courts
- Appointing ill-prepared loyalists to key posts that need seasoned leaders
- Degrading America’s position as the most important global leader while trying to assert it
- Joining Russia, China, North Korea and Iran in symbolic UN vote
- Insisting the obvious did not happen including 2020 election results, invasion of Ukraine by Russia, and re-characterizing the attack on the Capitol as a patriotic event.
- Attempts to defy the law of economics (rising prices) using tariffs
Among America’s greatest assets is our well-established constitutional democracy and adherence to the rule of law. On the economic side our size, scale, dollar dominance, and centrality in the international supply chain come quickly to mind.
But America can be defeated. While our constitutional principles are profound, our human leadership is not.
I tell my Republican friends who have decided to stick with Trump and work within the Party to improve its future that internal reform is likely a fool’s errand. Yes, it will eventually happen, but only after a blood bath.
And believing that friendship is way more important than politics, I enjoy talking to my friends who are Democrats. I reflect that we are spending way too much money on programs that have barely moved the dial after decades of trial. I add, to some discomfort, that attempting to re-work social standards through tradition busting laws will not work. Identity politics is just one more version of yielding to the loudest voices or the biggest bank accounts.
But let me not leave it there. To the glue-sniffers in the Republican Party, Trump won because President Biden and his cast of reality deniers handed him the election. He should govern with some measure of humility. He will not; hubris eventually loses.
Now to a brief coda. Americans faith in the Supreme Court has suffered. The Court’s integrity can be revived if it reasserts our Constitutional foundation. Most importantly its upcoming decisions, interpreted, should be “Congress, get your house in order; you have important work to do.”
Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books.