Where will the Orange Menace be on January 20, 2025? Let’s set aside morbid or offensive scenarios—things like rotting in an overcrowded prison in China after being kidnapped on the fifth fairway of one of his Scottish golf courses.  It is easy to come up with dozens of scenarios like that, but what’s the point? It is okay to dislike or even hate Trump but wishing him ill should be unacceptable.  Calling for retribution against Trump is something that only somebody like Trump would do.

The next eight-plus months will be wild. One can imagine dozens of scenarios, most of them frightening.   Will they include any of the scenarios I imagined last weekend after eating too much spicy food?

Trump falls seriously ill. Given the stress of facing 91 felony charges and unpaid civil penalties of more than a half billion dollars, as well as the wear and tear of campaigning, a sudden, major-medical crisis could happen.  Are Trump supporters likely to stick with him after he suffers a stroke or heart attack?  Will Trump do something that finally convinces his supporters he’s not physically up to the job of president?

Trump declares bankruptcy. The devil may be in the details, but generally, court penalties are not dischargeable in bankruptcy. And, of course, a bankruptcy could increase sympathy for Trump among those who agree with Trump that the fines imposed for business fraud in New York are BS. Trump would launch aggressive new fundraising campaigns based on his bankruptcy. My guess is that Trump supporters will not abandon him if he is forced to (again) declare bankruptcy.

Melania Trump divorces Trump. Rumors that Melania, who Trump is accused of referencing as  “Mercedes” in a recent campaign speech, is contemplating divorce could prove true. Would a third divorce cost Trump support? Or would it strengthen support among his base who would blame the divorce on the “deranged prosecutors” who indicted him? Would Trump start attacking Melania as also being “deranged?”

Two or three women come forward with claims that Trump impregnated them and encouraged them to get abortions. If Trump were the player that he claims to be (and photos with people like Jeffrey Epstein suggest that he was), this scenario must be considered at least possible. Would the Trump followers who praise him for overturning Roe v. Wade abandon him?  Don’t count on it, especially if Trump simply calls the women involved liars.

Additional videotapes of Trump bragging about assaulting women with impunity are found. These tapes would be similar to the infamous Billy Bush tape. This scenario could prove to be a non-event. Everyone knows Trump is crude. His base is likely to yawn. Trump’s opponents would publicize the tapes, but how far will that get them?

New evidence of Trump’s complicity in the January 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol emerges proving that  Trump planned for an angry mob to disrupt the counting of votes. If Trump supporters learned that he was personally responsible for the insurrection, would that change their support for him?  Or would they like him even more?

A Trump supporter attempts to assassinate Joe Biden. There can be little doubt that Trump calling Biden a criminal, the worse president in history, senile and deranged could inspire someone to attempt an assassination. If that happened, would voters rally around Biden (assuming the assassination attempt failed), or would Trump stand up for the would-be assassins and call them patriots?

The IRS files a massive tax fraud case against Trump. Would this poison Trump’s support? Or would they, echoing Trump, call it another witch hunt or even increase their support and donations to Trump in the belief that by not paying taxes, Trump was fighting big government.

Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce formally endorse Biden. This is perhaps the most likely of the 10 scenarios, but would the endorsement hurt Trump? Trump supporters don’t seem to be the type of people who would drop Trump because Swift detests him. And many Trump supporters may not know who Travis Kelce is.

Finally, as November 5 approaches, Trump determines that he is going to, again, lose the presidential election. Knowing that the government is likely to be better prepared to address another attempt to gain power through violence, Trump could renounce his citizenship and move to a friendly country, such as Russia. If this were to happen, would newly reelected President Biden seek to extradite him back to the U.S. Not likely.

These 10 scenarios, if you have not realized it, are speculative. Here is one more scenario more likely than not to happen in November. Millions of Democratic, independent, and disgruntled Republican voters realize the election of Trump is a real possibility. Motivated by the imperative of protecting civil rights, saving the environment, maintaining abortion rights, respecting human dignity at the border, continuing American world leadership, and restoring decency to politics, vote in record numbers, swamping Trump.  Trump is defeated in a landslide so big that even he is unable to claim election fraud.

J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government and other subjects.

I am weary of watching videos of an outraged Donald Trump complaining about election interference. Trump argues that the civil and criminal cases brought against him are politically motivated. Trump tells us that the cases would not have been brought if he were not running for president. Really? Most of us are not buying that argument. But is Trump, right? Would anyone else who committed the same business fraud of inflating property values to get more favorable loan rates have been prosecuted?

Last weekend, I reflected on “election interference” and concluded that the Trump legal proceedings meet the definition. They are distracting voters from critical issues that should be the focus of a presidential election–things like the economy, healthcare, education, civil rights, crime, and border security. But I also concluded that it was Trump, not the prosecutors and justice system that is attempting to hold him accountable, that is to blame.

Jack Smith, Fani Willis, Letitia James, and Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg likely thought about who they were investigating or indicting when they made their prosecutorial decisions to pursue Trump. They may have been thinking, “Somebody had to do something to stop Trump from returning to power.” But, most likely, they were also thinking, “Given what Trump did, he must be prosecuted.”

In his first 15 months as New York DA, Bragg and his team filed 166 felony counts for falsifying business records against 34 people or companies.  Under his predecessor, former DA Cyrus Vance, in contrast, it took three years to charge about the same amount of business felonies.

“Equal Justice Under Law” is engraved into the marble above the main entrance to the U.S. Supreme Court building in Washington, D.C. The meaning of the phrase is obvious, but it also means that justice is not equal if accountability can be evaded by running for president.

The Constitution of the United States is deficient in not eliminating eligibility to run for president for anyone who faces a pending indictment for a felony under federal law. Such a provision would have nipped Trump’s scary attempt to return to office in the bud. If the Constitution restricts eligibility to run for president to people above age 35 who are naturally born citizens and have lived in the United States for 14 years, the Founding Fathers could have gone one step further and blocked people accused of serious crimes from running for president.

Naysayers, most of them supporters of the ex-president, will point out that such a modification to the Constitution would create the possibility of political opponents conjuring up phony charges and indicting candidates to block their elections. Such a scenario can be imagined, especially under a future Trump administration, but is unlikely in normal times. The party that engaged in such a stunt would be condemned by voters.

Imagine, for a moment, that Donald Trump was a patriot who loved the Constitution and democracy. That Trump would reflect on the 2024 campaign and realize that the biggest elephant in the room (the age of the two leading candidates being the second biggest) is preempting a discussion of issues and would drop out.

We are not hearing enough about the issues voters want to discuss, which is one reason many voters are checking out. Unless you are a political junkie, Trump’s efforts to have Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis removed from the Trump case in Georgia is boring. Equally boring are the asset valuation issues at the heart of Trump’s business fraud case in New York—the one where Judge Erdogan found Trump liable for more than $453 million dollars. Many voters shrug their shoulders and say, “Don’t all businesspeople cheat?” or “That has nothing to do with me!”

After months of watching Trump’s 2024 campaign, voters are waking up to the fact that Trump is portraying himself as a victim of an unjust legal system in his campaign. Few voters read the detailed and often bizarre policy proposals that the Trump campaign has put forward. If Trump is not talking much about them, why should voters read them?

Give Trump a stage, and you will hear the words witch hunt, deranged, sick, Trump hater, corrupt, and, of course, election interference repeatedly. If you are unfortunate enough to get a campaign solicitation from Trump, it will be more about his legal problems than about anything else. The main references to President Biden will be about his corruption and age. If policies are discussed, you will read about the Southern border being overrun, wokeness, crime, and very few other things. (If you were Trump, you would not want to talk about the economy, except for inflation, either.)

Imagine, for a moment, a 2024 election season where Trump was not running. Such a campaign would be different. President Biden’s age would still be an issue, but discussions of policy would be unavoidable. America would be on track for a better, more substantive election.

Trump’s legal problems, if you think about it, are the elephant in the 2024 room. They are the election interference, and one person is responsible for it—Donald Trump. Any decent human being facing the mountain of legal problems Trump faces would realize that discussion of the problems would preempt discussion of significant issues. Trump is not a decent human being. He could give a damn about something other than himself. He does not.

Trump could make the election interference referenced in his victimization campaign go away by dropping out. He will not.

If we are going to keep Trump out of the White House, we, the voters, must take matters into our own hands. We need to use the right to vote and execute our responsibility as citizens to speak out against a candidate who should not be running for president.

J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government and other subjects.

The list of bizarre and troubling comments that Donald Trump has made on the campaign trail continues to grow. But until last week, the list did not include encouraging Russia to attack U.S. allies and, indirectly, the U.S.  

At a campaign rally in South Carolina, Trump reminded an audience of his efforts to encourage NATO members to meet their funding commitments to the mutual defense organization, implying that they were somehow delinquent in paying dues to the organization. The problem is that NATO does not collect dues. Instead, the organization asks members to commit to spending two percent of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defense.  

Despite not understanding how NATO works, Trump credits himself with prompting some members to increase funding for the organization. None did. While some NATO members increased defense spending between 2017 and 2020, they most likely did so because of Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014.  It is also worth noting that President Obama urged NATO members to increase their defense budgets and that some NATO members spend more, as a percent of GDP, than the United States. Poland spent 3.9 percent in 2023, and nine other NATO members, in addition to the U.S., spent more than 2.0 percent. 

Trump shared a conversation he claims he had with a NATO member who asked him how he would respond to a NATO member that did not pay its NATO dues if that member were attacked. Trump, if you can believe him, responded, “You didn’t pay? You’re delinquent? No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills.”  This statement coming from Trump is ironic, given the fact that he is notorious for not paying his bills. 

It is unlikely that this or any similar conversation between Trump and a NATO member took place. A NATO leader (other than Trump) would have known that there is no such thing as “NATO dues.”  Whoever Trump would have spoken to would have laughed at him and walked away.  

Since the speech, President Biden and some Capitol Hill Republicans have condemned Trump’s comments. In a statement, Biden reacted, describing the ex-president’s statement as “Donald Trump’s admission that he intends to give Putin a green light for more war and violence, to continue his brutal assault against a free Ukraine, and to expand his aggression to the people of Poland and the Baltic States is appalling and dangerous.”   

Trump’s comments are more than appalling and dangerous. They are also treasonous. NATO is a mutual defense organization. An attack on one member is considered an attack on all NATO members. The goal is to discourage military aggression against any NATO member, including the United States. That makes NATO effectively part of America’s defense against foreign adversaries, such as Russia. 

 In 2022, Trump praised Putin as “savvy” and “genius” after his attack on Ukraine. Trump commented: “’This is genius.’ Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine — of Ukraine — Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful. He used the word ‘independent’ and ‘we’re gonna go out and we’re gonna go in and we’re gonna help keep peace.’ You gotta say that’s pretty savvy.”  Yes, very savvy, and even exceptionally savvy if you see nothing wrong with a dictator starting a war of aggression and justifying it with lies.  

Since the start of the Ukraine war, Russia’s economy has suffered greatly, its military has been badly depleted, and thousands of Russian men are fleeing the country to avoid military conscription. Would a genius or savvy leader let this happen to his country? (Note that Trump expressed hope the U.S. economy will collapse in the hope the crisis would aid he attempts to regain the White House.) 

Trump also discussed allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 election at a press conference at a summit in Helsinki, Finland, that he believed Russian denials. After meeting with Vladimir Putin privately, he announced, “President Putin says it is not Russia. I don’t see any reason why it would be.”  

Trump’s campaign responded to the condemnation of his campaign comments on NATO by reminding voters that the U.S. was at peace during his presidency. Campaign spokesman Jason Miller commented, “Democrat and media pearl-clutchers seem to have forgotten that we had four years of peace and prosperity under President Trump, but Europe saw death and destruction under Obama-Biden and now more death and destruction under Biden. President Trump got our allies to increase their NATO spending by demanding they pay up, but Joe Biden went back to letting them take advantage of the American taxpayer.” 

 If you experience difficulty in understanding how this comment might neutralize or rebut Trump’s invitation to Putin to attack U.S. allies, you are not alone. 

Trump has again claimed that, if elected, he will end the war in Ukraine. That would apparently result from a combination of his cutting off U.S. aid to Ukraine and negotiating a Ukrainian surrender to Russia, under which Russia would retain the territory it has gained in the war. Trump has actively discouraged Congressional Republicans from approving additional aid to Ukraine and has ridiculed Ukrainian president Zelensky as “the world’s greatest salesman.” 

 Donald Trump is a friend of Putin. What better way to strengthen that friendship than by weakening NATO, undermining U.S. support for Ukraine, and, with help from his friend and possible 2024 running mate, Tucker Carlson, reversing the perception of Putin as a modern Hitler? 

Trump is a traitor. If he is elected in 2024 and follows through on the promises he made last week in South Carolina, the U.S. will be in a heap of hurt. 

J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and other subjects. 

Bob Dylan once told us, “You don’t need to be a weatherman to tell which way the wind blows.” As I read The Washington Post Monday morning, I thought, “You don’t need to be a climatologist to tell that climate change is a reality.”  The article I was reading was about the “Atmospheric River” that is dropping record amounts of rain on large parts of California. 

I never heard the term “atmospheric river” until recently. “Bomb cyclones” were also unknown to me and, I suspect, to most of us. If recent weather patterns are any indication, we better brush up on both terms. They may become something of a new normal. 

Bomb cyclones are no longer rarities. Fox News tells us: “A bomb cyclone, also known as explosive cyclogenesis or bombogenesis, is a fast-developing storm that occurs when atmospheric pressure drops at least 24 millibars over a 24-hour period. Bombogenesis refers to the quickness of how fast the low pressure develops. The intense pressure can intensify storms and cause them to spin counterclockwise, creating heavy winds, blizzard conditions and rainfall.”  

Do you remember that a bomb cyclone hit the DC area six years ago? I did, but only vaguely. Clearly it could happen again. The Eastern Shore could have been hit.  

Another Atmospheric River Event is wreaking havoc in California with massive flooding caused by heavy rainfall. NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, tells us: “Atmospheric rivers are relatively long, narrow regions in the atmosphere – like rivers in the sky – that transport most of the water vapor outside the tropics. While atmospheric rivers can vary greatly in size and strength, the average atmospheric river carries an amount of water vapor roughly equivalent to the average flow of water at the mouth of the Mississippi River. Exceptionally strong atmospheric rivers can transport up to 15 times that amount. When the atmospheric rivers make landfall, they often release this water vapor in the form of rain or snow.” 

Both bomb cyclones and disasters caused by atmospheric rivers are evidence of climate change. Climate change skeptics may scoff and say, “Give me a break. I’ll start worrying about extreme weather when I start to see it here.”  Really? Does that strike you as wise? 

While bomb cyclones and atmospheric river disasters have not yet become regular occurrences on the Eastern Shore, we already are seeing evidence of climate change that threatens our way of life. The Environmental Protection Agency wrote this in 2016: “Maryland’s climate is changing. Most of the state has warmed one to two degrees (F) in the last century, heavy rainstorms are more frequent, and the sea is rising about one inch every seven to eight years. Higher water levels are eroding beaches, submerging lowlands, exacerbating coastal flooding, and increasing the salinity of estuaries and aquifers. In coming decades, changing the climate is likely to increase coastal and inland flooding; harm marine, wetland, and inland ecosystems; disrupt fishing and farming; and increase some risks to human health.”   

Climate change is a global reality. Its impact is worsening as the problem remains largely unaddressed. Dramatic action is necessary. As the 2024 election approaches, the choice is clear. President Biden regularly talks about climate change. He stewarded legislation through Congress committing significant federal funding to addressing it. The other candidate, the ex-president, denied climate change in a Tweet in 2012 but has since recanted. Here is what Donald Trump said recently:  “I think something’s happening. Something’s changing and it’ll change back again. I don’t think it’s a hoax. I think there’s probably a difference. But I don’t know that it’s manmade. I will say this: I don’t want to give trillions and trillions of dollars. I don’t want to lose millions and millions of jobs.” 

It may take a bomb cyclone or flooding of a golf course resulting from an “atmospheric river event” to get Donald Trump to change his mind. Note that I wrote “may” rather than “will.” 

J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and other subjects. 

Chances are Nikki Haley will not beat Trump and steal the GOP nomination. It is more than a long shot for that to happen. Haley could not even get the Senator she appointed, Tim Scott (R-SC), to endorse her. And she is behind by more than 30 points in her home state. Haley may be the last woman standing between Trump and the nomination, but only the most unlikely scenario would find her around by the end of March.

Trump has proven that a majority of Republican voters either do not believe Trump is guilty of serious crimes or do not care. Most of them continue to believe Trump is the victim of unfair prosecution that Joe Biden launched against him.

Thus, Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. Fortunately, that does not mean he will be elected president. It is far more likely that Joe Biden will be inaugurated for a second term on January 20, 2025.

How will Biden win? It will not be because of his legal troubles. It will be the economy, stupid. Democratic and independent voters, and even a few sane Republicans, are starting to wake up to the fact that the economy is good and getting better. Maybe that is one reason why Donald Trump expressed the bizarre hope that the economy will crash before election day. Trump knows that the success of the Biden presidency will carry Biden over the line.

Economists now tell us that the U.S. economic recovery is stronger than that of any other western economy. They also now predict “a soft landing” for the economy, meaning there will not be a recession. And they also acknowledge something that consumers do not need an economist to tell them—inflation is subsiding. Mind you, prices are still high, but they are no longer rising precipitously.

Over the next 10 months, Donald Trump will do his best to convince voters that Joe Biden has been a disaster as president and that today’s strengthening economy resulted from his four years in the White House. That is a heavy lift that even Trump supporters are likely to question. Donald, they will say, you cannot have it both ways. Either the economy is a disaster, or it is not.

Joe Biden continues to have vulnerability on border security, crime, “wokeness” (many Republicans craft their own definition of wokeness and then condemn it), and, of course, Biden’s age and Vice President Harris. How many voters who are not already wedded to Trump will migrate to his camp on the basis of these issues? My guess is few.

James Carville, the Ragin’ Cajun who helped put Bill Clinton in the White House, told us, “It’s the economy, stupid.” He was and continues to be right. On election day, voters look at their own circumstances and focus on those issues. Are they hopeful about the future—things like jobs, inflation, housing, and health? If they are, they will support Biden.

Three years ago, Joe Biden decided to “go big.”  He passed major infrastructure legislation, committing trillions of dollars to address a variety of national problems, including action on climate change, roads, and social services. The economy is now telling us that “Biden’s reckless spending” did not crash the economy or give us double-digit inflation.

Better yet is something not appreciated by most of us.  Much of the stimulus to the economy inherent in the infrastructure legislation is yet to come.  Many of the construction projects authorized by the legislation, for example, are only now getting underway.  This means that the Biden legislation will continue to create jobs, making a rise in the unemployment rate less likely.  And the money flowing into the economy as infrastructure projects get underway will help ensure a continued robust economy.

Finally, let’s look at foreign affairs. The world is a mess. Trump, right on cue, claims that if he had succeeded in stealing the 2020 election (he does not refer to it quite that way), there would be no war in Ukraine, Israel, or anywhere else. He claims the military loved him and that world leaders across the globe respected him. These claims defy credibility. They are patently absurd. Yes, the world is a mess, but it is easier to imagine it being much more of a mess had Trump won in 2020.

A few years ago, a wise friend told me that federal prosecutors should give Trump a pass—do not attempt to hold him accountable because he will paint himself a victim. In a way, my friend was right. But I disagreed with him then, and I disagree with him now. Nobody is above the law. If you do the crime, you should do the time.

On election day, 2024 voters will focus on their kitchen-table issues. If they do so, Biden will win. You can fool some of the people some of the time, but that is it. And voters do not have to trust anyone to see that the economy is strengthening, and that Biden is not the problem.

The economy will save Joe Biden.

J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government and other subjects.

I had a nightmare last night. Shortly after noon, one year from now, Donald J. Trump “suspended” the Constitution. He announced it in his inauguration speech from the west front of the U.S. Capitol, the same location where, a little more than five years earlier, the angry mob Trump summoned to Washington sought to keep him in office after he lost the 2020 election. There was no need for violence this time. With help from RFK, Jr., No Labels, and millions of deluded or lazy voters, Trump won.

Trump’s inauguration speech struck many as a repeat of the gloom and doom he offered in 2017, but this time, there were no ex-presidents to listen to it. The outgoing president, Joe Biden, was already back in Delaware and George W. Bush was in Texas. Trump promised to arrest both “on day one” and “toss them in jail.” Would he?

On the afternoon of January 21, just as Rachel Maddow finished commenting on Trump’s speech, she offered “Breaking News” that federal agents had seized control of The New York Times. Maddow did not have time to finish her report. Moments later MSNBC went off the air. Televisions tuned into the channel now featured a fixed shot of the letters MAGA and a picture of Trump taking his oath of office.

My nightmare continued with my watching FOX News, one of the few news channels still operating. Trump announced the dissolution of the House and Senate in his speech. Democrats had won control of both. Amazingly, as Trump told viewers that, “The Congress has not represented the views of the people for decades,” some members of the now-dissolved Senate were seen clapping, among them Senators Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Ted Cruz (R-TX), and Josh Hawley (R-MO). Only Hawley had reason to clap. Earlier in the day Trump had appointed him to serve as Attorney General in a social media post that also announced the “disbanding” of the FBI and the firing of all current Department of Justice employees.

Some Democrats immediately started marching towards the White House. Some of them carried signs, “Illegal President” and “Jail Him Now.” These protesters were turned away by horse-mounted park police. Some protesters were shot.

Trump also freed the “January 6 hostages,” some of whom marched in the inaugural parade, which included a model of the scaffold erected at the Capitol in January 2021. The model included a sign, “He should have been hung; now he’ll be jailed.” “He” referred to former Vice President Mike Pence.

Under an order from Trump, National Guard troops started shooting undocumented immigrants attempting to cross the southern border. He also issued an executive order banning all abortions, effective immediately, and mandating death for any doctor performing or assisting, “in any way,” in the procedure. Two reports of doctors being shot were broadcast on Fox by the end of the day.

My nightmare continued with Trump committing U.S. troops to aid Russia in its “pacification” of Ukraine. He also announced that “our friend, Vladimir Putin,” would come to Washington in February as his guest. He promised to hold “the well-known Nazi, Zelensky” accountable. Then Trump predicted that, “We will see him swinging from a noose soon.”

About a week after inauguration day, Trump announced that, via executive order, the U.S. Constitution has been “rescinded.” In its place, Trump promised “a new, efficient, MAGA charter that will Keep America Great for the next 1,000 years.”

I woke up in a sweat after imagining a classroom of children being taught that Trump was the founder of the United States. For a few seconds, I trembled in fear. Then I realized that it was all only a bad dream and that we still have a year before inauguration day 2025. It is not too late to save democracy.

J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and other subjects.

The Iowa Republican voters have spoken, but we wasted our time waiting for results of the caucuses. We knew that a four-times-indicted man would win the caucus vote. We did not know whether DeSantis would finish behind Nikki Haley or the reverse, but we knew that DeSantis’ dream of bringing book-banning to the White House is not looking good. And we knew that Vivek Ramaswamy would head back to Cincinnati after the caucuses with a lighter wallet but without gaining an ounce of maturity.

So, the Iowa caucus is over. Is it a virtual certainty that Trump will be his party’s nominee? Trump has proven himself right—he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and still win elections. We also learned that with each passing day, Trump is becoming bolder. If you believe what Trump says, things like shooting drug dealers on sight, be afraid. Trump’s flippant remarks about being a dictator sound less flippant every day.

Despite his win, Trump is showing his vulnerabilities. Except in Georgia, where Trump-nominated Judge Aileen Cannon is dutifully repaying her debt to Trump by postponing Trump’s trial for the presidential documents heist until after election day, Trump’s legal problems are worsening. The possibility of having a convicted president win in November is increasing. And the probability of Trump pardoning himself, several allies, including the not yet indicted Andy “Handgun” Harris, and the “January 6 hostages,” will be a certainty should Trump win.

The alternative scenarios to Trump winning the nomination are few. They include Trump falling ill; an unlikely “aha” moment in which Trump cultists realize their leader is a godless, principleless grifter who really does not care about them; or Special Counsel Jack Smith getting Trump to jail sooner than now seems possible.

Thus, count on Trump being the party’s nominee. But what about Nikki Haley? There is a sliver of hope for the former U.N. Ambassador. Despite finishing third in Iowa, she remains likely to be the party’s nominee if it is not Trump. She will trounce DeSantis in New Hampshire.

Most of us would welcome Haley as the GOP nominee, but that is it. She has promised to pardon Trump; is squiggly on key issues like abortion; and is something of a wild card. What Nikki Haley would be president? A pragmatist? A right-wing conservative who would get to work on winning a second term on day one? Or something else? I do not want to find out. I already know who Biden is and like his policies.

Eventually, DeSantis will slink his way back to Florida. Fortunately for Floridians, DeSantis has damaged his popularity in his own state. Floridians now know they have nothing special. DeSantis is just a Trump-wanna-be who thought Trump’s days were over and sought to step into his shoes. The shoes were too big, and the minuscule DeSantis fell out.

The last Republican I will mention is the clown who described himself as “Super MAGA.” Vivek Ramaswamy, one of the smarmiest candidates for president ever. Ramaswamy had a moment in the sun before people started listening to him and his plans to ban affirmative action, abolish the FBI, Departments of Education and Justice, and even the Center for Disease Control. Ramaswamy, a self-identified genius, is a climate change denier who wants to repeal the federal safety net that keeps tens of millions of Americans from living in poverty. He also has promised to pardon Trump and the January 6 insurrectionists.

For a while, after Trump listened to Vivek’s fawning praise, the ex-president liked him. Trump might even have selected him as VP. Alas, last week Trump threw Ramaswamy under the bus after he saw a photo of Vivek with supporters wearing “Support Trump, Vote for Vivek” in Iowa. That outrage prompted Vivek being called a “fraud” and worse. Ramaswamy should have seen Trump’s attack coming. What kind of a Harvard man is so stupid as to trust Trump?

Vivek ended his campaign yesterday. One might have assumed he would catch the plane available to the Queen City, but instead Ramaswamy telephoned Donald Trump to endorse him. Why would he do this after Trump’s attack? My guess is that Vivek still dreams of being Trump’s VP. He should not hold his breath. He may also dream of a cabinet appointment that might keep him in the news and give him a chance to run for president again.

The most likely outcome for Ramaswamy is that he will soon fade from public memory. To the extent he is remembered, it will be a synonym for a toady. He kissed Trump’s behind. As they say, you reap what you sow.

How about the general election? It is too early to make projections, so I will not, other than to say that the dreaded Biden-Trump rematch is likely. Except it will not be a two-person fight—Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., the Covid-nut, will be on several state ballots and steal votes from Biden. (Of course, if Trump persuades Kennedy to run as his VP, that could hurt Biden even more.)

We also have not seen signs of Jill Stein or Cornel West cancelling their candidacies. And what about “No Labels?” When I think of them, I think, “Monkey Wrench.” Why the rocket scientists behind this movement want to help Trump win the presidency is beyond me. My message to “No Labels” is “Stop! For the sake of Democracy, stop!”

Stay tuned. Yes, it will get worse but let us not give up hope. That is what Trump wants us to do. If you have no hope, if you have lost faith in democracy and constitutional government, and if you think people of color, LGBQT+ folks, and China are taking over America, stay home or vote for Trump. If you have hope and cherish democracy, get to work. All is not lost. Biden can win but he will not without your help.

J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and other subjects.

Every time Donald Trump presses the send button on a social media post, often in the middle of night to Truth Social or X, the defeated ex-president seems to be engaging in self-destruction. Does a man telling a basket of his perceived enemies to “ROT IN HELL” in a Christmas message have the temperament to be president? And when Trump tells America that if he does not win the presidency in 2024, the country will suffer a severe depression, what is he doing? Is he not-so-subtly trying to intimidate you into voting for him?

Therein is the question of why Trump posts tweets that if posted by anyone else would immediately end their presidential campaigns. In 1968, when Senator Ed Muskie cried in Maine, his quest for the White House ended. When Mike Dukakis, wearing a helmet, was photographed awkwardly driving a tank, he was toast. And when Barry Goldwater told America that “Extremism in defense of liberty is no vice,” LBJ’s election was all but guaranteed.

Trump is not yesterday’s presidential candidate—and hopefully not tomorrow’s. He is not even the Trump of 2016. The Trump of eight years ago tweeted but had not yet mastered the art of the angry rant. Eight years ago, Trump’s tweets included calling Senators “embarrassments” and calling critics and media outlets names, but did not include calls to execute, incarcerate, or institutionalize critics (or the judges and prosecutors working to hold him accountable).  Can we say that Trump has evolved?

Trump is headed somewhere with his tweets, but is it to insanity? If that is the case, a third of American voters, probably more, are comfortable with a lunatic in the White House. I do not want to believe that. But equally clearly, given Trump’s obsession with returning to power, he is onto something. One theory is that the Trump tweets and campaign speech rants that many of us find disqualifying are the essence of his campaign. 

If Trump were to stop tweeting, or even tone his tweets down, his audience would evaporate. His tweets would be run of the mill political blather, boring and predictable. They could pass for something that Mike Pence might write. 

When many of us, including “Never Trumpers,” see a headline referencing a new Trump social media post, we read it because it is outrageous. It is not every day that a presidential candidate calls a Black state attorney general “racist” or a governor from his party in a swing state “a stiff” for vetoing a bill.

Maybe the American electorate has lost faith in traditional politics. They hear Joe Biden talking about good news on the economy, but the message is boring, and they don’t listen because Biden is “too old.”  They hear Nikki Haley call for “new leadership” (how original!) and yawn. But when they read a Trump tweet or listen to the highlights of one of his long-winded rally speeches, too many of us hear something worth talking about. Democrats remind each other that Trump is the deranged one and is going to jail anyway. MAGA cultists chuckle to each other that Trump has done it again—he has put the leftists in their place, reminding them of who’s boss and done so with something funny.

Trump, I think, knows that his tweeting, and the same rhetoric when delivered in a speech, works. He does it intentionally. Many tweets may be reckless, such as calling the Special Counsel prosecuting you for insurrection and obstruction of justice “deranged,” but Trump has concluded the benefits outweigh the risks. He believes that if he is elected president, Special Counsel Jack Smith, New York Attorney General Letitia James, Judge Arthur Engoron, and his other tormenters go away, one way or another. 

Trump may also have concluded that without the tweets, his campaign would not fly. Dare I call that genius?

J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and other subjects. 

 

I want to start 2024 with a hopeful thought. Next year could be the year the Eastern Shore finally unloads Andy “Handgun” Harris. A year from now, I dream, we will celebrate Dr. Harris’ retirement from politics.

It is time for Andy Harris to exit the political stage. Here is why:

Harris is an unambiguous supporter of Donald Trump and is expected to endorse his candidacy for 2024. He voted against both Trump impeachments and voted against creating the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack on the U.S. Capitol.  Harris is quoted as saying that Trump’s indictment in connection with January 6 “shows we live in a third world banana republic where the justice system is weaponized against political opponents.”

Harris participated in a December 21, 2020, meeting at the White House where plans were discussed on how to circumvent Trump’s loss of the 2020 presidential election. Harris’ 2022 general election opponent, Heather Mizeur, called on Harris to explain his presence at the meeting and disclose whether he later sought a pardon from Trump.  Harris never responded. 

Harris supported Mike Johnson as Speaker of the House of Representatives. Johnson was a principal architect of Trump’s scheme to block the certification of the 2020 election.

Shortly after the January 6, 2021, insurrection, Harris was stopped by Capitol Police for attempting to carry a loaded handgun onto the floor of the House of Representatives. Harris said he forgot he was carrying. (The incident is the reason I refer to Harris as Andy “Handgun” Harris.)

Harris is a die-hard opponent of efforts to stop gun violence. He voted against the Assault Weapons Ban Act of 2022 and the Active Shooter Alert Act of 2022.

In 2019, Harris opposed the 9/11 Victims Compensation Act. (Why?) Harris was one of only 11 Republicans who voted against the bill. 

In 2019, Harris voted against extending the Violence Against Women Act. (Why?)

In 2021, Harris voted “present” on a resolution condemning QAnon conspiracy theories. The measure passed on a strong bipartisan vote with 371 “aye” votes. 

Despite the importance of a clean, healthy Chesapeake Bay to First District voters, Harris regularly votes against legislation that supports efforts to improve the health of the Bay. He has earned a lifetime score of 3% by the League of Conservation Voters. In the past, Harris has questioned climate change. 

Harris is an adamant opponent of abortion.

Harris is an opponent of LGBTQ+ rights.

Harris advised listeners to use ivermectin to treat COVID, a medicine most often used to rid horses and cows of parasites. The American Medical Association strongly urged against prescribing the drug other than in clinical trials. The Food and Drug Administration warned people against taking the drug. 

Harris broke his promise to leave Congress after six terms. In 2021, in announcing his decision. He blamed “socialists” and “liberals” and said his work was not yet done. (What work?)

If Trump wins the Republican nomination for president in 2024 but loses the general election, it is likely that Dr. Harris will again spring into action to save the political life of his leader. Count on Trump to point to deranged lunatics, communists, and RINOs for stealing the election from him. Plans will be laid to again block certification of his opponent’s win, notwithstanding the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act. If those efforts fail, why shouldn’t we expect more violence?

There are many reasons Andy Harris should not represent the Eastern Shore (or anywhere else) in Congress. His interests are out of sync with Eastern Shore priorities. And last time I checked, an overwhelming majority of voters on the Eastern Shore still supported democracy.

A new year starts in five days. Let that year, 2024, be the year that Dr. Harris leaves Congress. Congress, and American democracy, will be healthier for it. 

The Maryland primary is May 14, 2024. The deadline for candidates to file to run is February 9, 2024. 

J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and other subjects. 

 

Many years from now, historians will call 2023 a bad year. They will study the disturbing political career of Donald Trump. Historians will also document a year of wars in Gaza and Ukraine, both of which involve substantial American commitment and the possibility of expansion into regional and even global conflicts. The country is also suffering from a rising crime rate and an out-of-control border security system.

Had we known what was to transpire in 2023 last year and had the opportunity to skip the year, most of would have shouted, “Yes, please.”

But is the year really a complete bust? No. Even ignoring good things that happened to many of us in our personal lives, there are at least 10 things that can be considered pleasant surprises:

Inflation, especially the price of gasoline, has gone down. All of us are heaving a sigh of relief and crossing our fingers that there will not be a recession. As of today, the economy is looking better every day, and the stock market has reached an all-time high. Are many of us still shocked at the prices of groceries and other essentials? Yes, but the scourge of inflation is abating. 

Workers were empowered in 2023 and successfully fought for higher wages. The UAW strike is the most prominent example, but workers in many other industries flexed their muscles and narrowed the income gap with high income earners. Improving income equality is in everyone’s interest. 

Joe Biden has remained healthy. While many of us would prefer his party to nominate a younger candidate, Biden has proven to be more robust than most of us expected. Even those who disagree with Biden on policy and accuse him of corruption have to be surprised that he is as active as he has been. In my view, his administration has been a success to date, in major part because of Biden’s leadership. 

Prosecutors finally indicted Donald Trump for a variety of crimes. Although many of us on the Eastern Shore disagree with the prosecution of Trump, I am a supporter of the rule of law. I welcome accountability for Trump. (I am aware of allegations against President Biden and his “crime family.”  I have not seen evidence that Joe Biden committed any crimes, but the House of Representatives is now investigating. Biden son has been indicted. Would Donald Trump, Jr. or Jared Kushner have been indicted had Trump won the 2020 presidential race? I do not think so.) 

How about a few things less political? 

The popularity of Taylor Swift. She brought unexpected joy to millions, including many people over age 17. I have yet to sit down and listen to her music but enjoy watching her cheer on the Kansas City Chiefs. 

Here is something you might not have expected on my list:  The Oppenheimer movie. It was brilliantly written and acted. Who would have foreseen a movie about the pros and cons of the invention of the atomic bomb being mainstream entertainment? If you have not seen it, I recommend it. 

The writers’ and actors’ strikes are over. This means that unexpectedly high-quality entertainment is coming back. This year a plethora of excellent entertainment was released. Among my favorites are Slow Horses, The Morning Show, Yellowstone, and Lessons in Chemistry.

Looking closer to home, we did not have a hurricane on the Eastern Shore this year. And efforts to improve the health of the bay and to fight climate change continue. Awareness of the consequences of inadequately considered development seems to be increasing. I hope I am right. 

Culture on the Eastern Shore continues to grow richer. The Waterfowl Festival was great this year (again). World-class concerts are available at the Prager Family Center for the Arts, The Avalon, and elsewhere. The Chesapeake Bay Maritime Museum’s Visitor Center is open. As 2023 ends, the Eastern Shore is a better place to live, culturally, than it was a year ago.

Number 10 is the Spy Newspapers. You really cannot call the continued success and growth of The Spy a “pleasant surprise,” because it was also strong in past years. The Eastern Shore is fortunate to have a non-profit newspaper that is “ultra-local focused.”  I rely on The Spy to keep an eye on the Eastern Shore. I find something of value in every issue. 

Happy Holidays!

J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and other subjects.