Bob Dylan once told us, “You don’t need to be a weatherman to tell which way the wind blows.” As I read The Washington Post Monday morning, I thought, “You don’t need to be a climatologist to tell that climate change is a reality.”  The article I was reading was about the “Atmospheric River” that is dropping record amounts of rain on large parts of California. 

I never heard the term “atmospheric river” until recently. “Bomb cyclones” were also unknown to me and, I suspect, to most of us. If recent weather patterns are any indication, we better brush up on both terms. They may become something of a new normal. 

Bomb cyclones are no longer rarities. Fox News tells us: “A bomb cyclone, also known as explosive cyclogenesis or bombogenesis, is a fast-developing storm that occurs when atmospheric pressure drops at least 24 millibars over a 24-hour period. Bombogenesis refers to the quickness of how fast the low pressure develops. The intense pressure can intensify storms and cause them to spin counterclockwise, creating heavy winds, blizzard conditions and rainfall.”  

Do you remember that a bomb cyclone hit the DC area six years ago? I did, but only vaguely. Clearly it could happen again. The Eastern Shore could have been hit.  

Another Atmospheric River Event is wreaking havoc in California with massive flooding caused by heavy rainfall. NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, tells us: “Atmospheric rivers are relatively long, narrow regions in the atmosphere – like rivers in the sky – that transport most of the water vapor outside the tropics. While atmospheric rivers can vary greatly in size and strength, the average atmospheric river carries an amount of water vapor roughly equivalent to the average flow of water at the mouth of the Mississippi River. Exceptionally strong atmospheric rivers can transport up to 15 times that amount. When the atmospheric rivers make landfall, they often release this water vapor in the form of rain or snow.” 

Both bomb cyclones and disasters caused by atmospheric rivers are evidence of climate change. Climate change skeptics may scoff and say, “Give me a break. I’ll start worrying about extreme weather when I start to see it here.”  Really? Does that strike you as wise? 

While bomb cyclones and atmospheric river disasters have not yet become regular occurrences on the Eastern Shore, we already are seeing evidence of climate change that threatens our way of life. The Environmental Protection Agency wrote this in 2016: “Maryland’s climate is changing. Most of the state has warmed one to two degrees (F) in the last century, heavy rainstorms are more frequent, and the sea is rising about one inch every seven to eight years. Higher water levels are eroding beaches, submerging lowlands, exacerbating coastal flooding, and increasing the salinity of estuaries and aquifers. In coming decades, changing the climate is likely to increase coastal and inland flooding; harm marine, wetland, and inland ecosystems; disrupt fishing and farming; and increase some risks to human health.”   

Climate change is a global reality. Its impact is worsening as the problem remains largely unaddressed. Dramatic action is necessary. As the 2024 election approaches, the choice is clear. President Biden regularly talks about climate change. He stewarded legislation through Congress committing significant federal funding to addressing it. The other candidate, the ex-president, denied climate change in a Tweet in 2012 but has since recanted. Here is what Donald Trump said recently:  “I think something’s happening. Something’s changing and it’ll change back again. I don’t think it’s a hoax. I think there’s probably a difference. But I don’t know that it’s manmade. I will say this: I don’t want to give trillions and trillions of dollars. I don’t want to lose millions and millions of jobs.” 

It may take a bomb cyclone or flooding of a golf course resulting from an “atmospheric river event” to get Donald Trump to change his mind. Note that I wrote “may” rather than “will.” 

J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and other subjects. 

Chances are Nikki Haley will not beat Trump and steal the GOP nomination. It is more than a long shot for that to happen. Haley could not even get the Senator she appointed, Tim Scott (R-SC), to endorse her. And she is behind by more than 30 points in her home state. Haley may be the last woman standing between Trump and the nomination, but only the most unlikely scenario would find her around by the end of March.

Trump has proven that a majority of Republican voters either do not believe Trump is guilty of serious crimes or do not care. Most of them continue to believe Trump is the victim of unfair prosecution that Joe Biden launched against him.

Thus, Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. Fortunately, that does not mean he will be elected president. It is far more likely that Joe Biden will be inaugurated for a second term on January 20, 2025.

How will Biden win? It will not be because of his legal troubles. It will be the economy, stupid. Democratic and independent voters, and even a few sane Republicans, are starting to wake up to the fact that the economy is good and getting better. Maybe that is one reason why Donald Trump expressed the bizarre hope that the economy will crash before election day. Trump knows that the success of the Biden presidency will carry Biden over the line.

Economists now tell us that the U.S. economic recovery is stronger than that of any other western economy. They also now predict “a soft landing” for the economy, meaning there will not be a recession. And they also acknowledge something that consumers do not need an economist to tell them—inflation is subsiding. Mind you, prices are still high, but they are no longer rising precipitously.

Over the next 10 months, Donald Trump will do his best to convince voters that Joe Biden has been a disaster as president and that today’s strengthening economy resulted from his four years in the White House. That is a heavy lift that even Trump supporters are likely to question. Donald, they will say, you cannot have it both ways. Either the economy is a disaster, or it is not.

Joe Biden continues to have vulnerability on border security, crime, “wokeness” (many Republicans craft their own definition of wokeness and then condemn it), and, of course, Biden’s age and Vice President Harris. How many voters who are not already wedded to Trump will migrate to his camp on the basis of these issues? My guess is few.

James Carville, the Ragin’ Cajun who helped put Bill Clinton in the White House, told us, “It’s the economy, stupid.” He was and continues to be right. On election day, voters look at their own circumstances and focus on those issues. Are they hopeful about the future—things like jobs, inflation, housing, and health? If they are, they will support Biden.

Three years ago, Joe Biden decided to “go big.”  He passed major infrastructure legislation, committing trillions of dollars to address a variety of national problems, including action on climate change, roads, and social services. The economy is now telling us that “Biden’s reckless spending” did not crash the economy or give us double-digit inflation.

Better yet is something not appreciated by most of us.  Much of the stimulus to the economy inherent in the infrastructure legislation is yet to come.  Many of the construction projects authorized by the legislation, for example, are only now getting underway.  This means that the Biden legislation will continue to create jobs, making a rise in the unemployment rate less likely.  And the money flowing into the economy as infrastructure projects get underway will help ensure a continued robust economy.

Finally, let’s look at foreign affairs. The world is a mess. Trump, right on cue, claims that if he had succeeded in stealing the 2020 election (he does not refer to it quite that way), there would be no war in Ukraine, Israel, or anywhere else. He claims the military loved him and that world leaders across the globe respected him. These claims defy credibility. They are patently absurd. Yes, the world is a mess, but it is easier to imagine it being much more of a mess had Trump won in 2020.

A few years ago, a wise friend told me that federal prosecutors should give Trump a pass—do not attempt to hold him accountable because he will paint himself a victim. In a way, my friend was right. But I disagreed with him then, and I disagree with him now. Nobody is above the law. If you do the crime, you should do the time.

On election day, 2024 voters will focus on their kitchen-table issues. If they do so, Biden will win. You can fool some of the people some of the time, but that is it. And voters do not have to trust anyone to see that the economy is strengthening, and that Biden is not the problem.

The economy will save Joe Biden.

J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government and other subjects.

I had a nightmare last night. Shortly after noon, one year from now, Donald J. Trump “suspended” the Constitution. He announced it in his inauguration speech from the west front of the U.S. Capitol, the same location where, a little more than five years earlier, the angry mob Trump summoned to Washington sought to keep him in office after he lost the 2020 election. There was no need for violence this time. With help from RFK, Jr., No Labels, and millions of deluded or lazy voters, Trump won.

Trump’s inauguration speech struck many as a repeat of the gloom and doom he offered in 2017, but this time, there were no ex-presidents to listen to it. The outgoing president, Joe Biden, was already back in Delaware and George W. Bush was in Texas. Trump promised to arrest both “on day one” and “toss them in jail.” Would he?

On the afternoon of January 21, just as Rachel Maddow finished commenting on Trump’s speech, she offered “Breaking News” that federal agents had seized control of The New York Times. Maddow did not have time to finish her report. Moments later MSNBC went off the air. Televisions tuned into the channel now featured a fixed shot of the letters MAGA and a picture of Trump taking his oath of office.

My nightmare continued with my watching FOX News, one of the few news channels still operating. Trump announced the dissolution of the House and Senate in his speech. Democrats had won control of both. Amazingly, as Trump told viewers that, “The Congress has not represented the views of the people for decades,” some members of the now-dissolved Senate were seen clapping, among them Senators Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Ted Cruz (R-TX), and Josh Hawley (R-MO). Only Hawley had reason to clap. Earlier in the day Trump had appointed him to serve as Attorney General in a social media post that also announced the “disbanding” of the FBI and the firing of all current Department of Justice employees.

Some Democrats immediately started marching towards the White House. Some of them carried signs, “Illegal President” and “Jail Him Now.” These protesters were turned away by horse-mounted park police. Some protesters were shot.

Trump also freed the “January 6 hostages,” some of whom marched in the inaugural parade, which included a model of the scaffold erected at the Capitol in January 2021. The model included a sign, “He should have been hung; now he’ll be jailed.” “He” referred to former Vice President Mike Pence.

Under an order from Trump, National Guard troops started shooting undocumented immigrants attempting to cross the southern border. He also issued an executive order banning all abortions, effective immediately, and mandating death for any doctor performing or assisting, “in any way,” in the procedure. Two reports of doctors being shot were broadcast on Fox by the end of the day.

My nightmare continued with Trump committing U.S. troops to aid Russia in its “pacification” of Ukraine. He also announced that “our friend, Vladimir Putin,” would come to Washington in February as his guest. He promised to hold “the well-known Nazi, Zelensky” accountable. Then Trump predicted that, “We will see him swinging from a noose soon.”

About a week after inauguration day, Trump announced that, via executive order, the U.S. Constitution has been “rescinded.” In its place, Trump promised “a new, efficient, MAGA charter that will Keep America Great for the next 1,000 years.”

I woke up in a sweat after imagining a classroom of children being taught that Trump was the founder of the United States. For a few seconds, I trembled in fear. Then I realized that it was all only a bad dream and that we still have a year before inauguration day 2025. It is not too late to save democracy.

J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and other subjects.

The Iowa Republican voters have spoken, but we wasted our time waiting for results of the caucuses. We knew that a four-times-indicted man would win the caucus vote. We did not know whether DeSantis would finish behind Nikki Haley or the reverse, but we knew that DeSantis’ dream of bringing book-banning to the White House is not looking good. And we knew that Vivek Ramaswamy would head back to Cincinnati after the caucuses with a lighter wallet but without gaining an ounce of maturity.

So, the Iowa caucus is over. Is it a virtual certainty that Trump will be his party’s nominee? Trump has proven himself right—he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and still win elections. We also learned that with each passing day, Trump is becoming bolder. If you believe what Trump says, things like shooting drug dealers on sight, be afraid. Trump’s flippant remarks about being a dictator sound less flippant every day.

Despite his win, Trump is showing his vulnerabilities. Except in Georgia, where Trump-nominated Judge Aileen Cannon is dutifully repaying her debt to Trump by postponing Trump’s trial for the presidential documents heist until after election day, Trump’s legal problems are worsening. The possibility of having a convicted president win in November is increasing. And the probability of Trump pardoning himself, several allies, including the not yet indicted Andy “Handgun” Harris, and the “January 6 hostages,” will be a certainty should Trump win.

The alternative scenarios to Trump winning the nomination are few. They include Trump falling ill; an unlikely “aha” moment in which Trump cultists realize their leader is a godless, principleless grifter who really does not care about them; or Special Counsel Jack Smith getting Trump to jail sooner than now seems possible.

Thus, count on Trump being the party’s nominee. But what about Nikki Haley? There is a sliver of hope for the former U.N. Ambassador. Despite finishing third in Iowa, she remains likely to be the party’s nominee if it is not Trump. She will trounce DeSantis in New Hampshire.

Most of us would welcome Haley as the GOP nominee, but that is it. She has promised to pardon Trump; is squiggly on key issues like abortion; and is something of a wild card. What Nikki Haley would be president? A pragmatist? A right-wing conservative who would get to work on winning a second term on day one? Or something else? I do not want to find out. I already know who Biden is and like his policies.

Eventually, DeSantis will slink his way back to Florida. Fortunately for Floridians, DeSantis has damaged his popularity in his own state. Floridians now know they have nothing special. DeSantis is just a Trump-wanna-be who thought Trump’s days were over and sought to step into his shoes. The shoes were too big, and the minuscule DeSantis fell out.

The last Republican I will mention is the clown who described himself as “Super MAGA.” Vivek Ramaswamy, one of the smarmiest candidates for president ever. Ramaswamy had a moment in the sun before people started listening to him and his plans to ban affirmative action, abolish the FBI, Departments of Education and Justice, and even the Center for Disease Control. Ramaswamy, a self-identified genius, is a climate change denier who wants to repeal the federal safety net that keeps tens of millions of Americans from living in poverty. He also has promised to pardon Trump and the January 6 insurrectionists.

For a while, after Trump listened to Vivek’s fawning praise, the ex-president liked him. Trump might even have selected him as VP. Alas, last week Trump threw Ramaswamy under the bus after he saw a photo of Vivek with supporters wearing “Support Trump, Vote for Vivek” in Iowa. That outrage prompted Vivek being called a “fraud” and worse. Ramaswamy should have seen Trump’s attack coming. What kind of a Harvard man is so stupid as to trust Trump?

Vivek ended his campaign yesterday. One might have assumed he would catch the plane available to the Queen City, but instead Ramaswamy telephoned Donald Trump to endorse him. Why would he do this after Trump’s attack? My guess is that Vivek still dreams of being Trump’s VP. He should not hold his breath. He may also dream of a cabinet appointment that might keep him in the news and give him a chance to run for president again.

The most likely outcome for Ramaswamy is that he will soon fade from public memory. To the extent he is remembered, it will be a synonym for a toady. He kissed Trump’s behind. As they say, you reap what you sow.

How about the general election? It is too early to make projections, so I will not, other than to say that the dreaded Biden-Trump rematch is likely. Except it will not be a two-person fight—Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., the Covid-nut, will be on several state ballots and steal votes from Biden. (Of course, if Trump persuades Kennedy to run as his VP, that could hurt Biden even more.)

We also have not seen signs of Jill Stein or Cornel West cancelling their candidacies. And what about “No Labels?” When I think of them, I think, “Monkey Wrench.” Why the rocket scientists behind this movement want to help Trump win the presidency is beyond me. My message to “No Labels” is “Stop! For the sake of Democracy, stop!”

Stay tuned. Yes, it will get worse but let us not give up hope. That is what Trump wants us to do. If you have no hope, if you have lost faith in democracy and constitutional government, and if you think people of color, LGBQT+ folks, and China are taking over America, stay home or vote for Trump. If you have hope and cherish democracy, get to work. All is not lost. Biden can win but he will not without your help.

J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and other subjects.

Every time Donald Trump presses the send button on a social media post, often in the middle of night to Truth Social or X, the defeated ex-president seems to be engaging in self-destruction. Does a man telling a basket of his perceived enemies to “ROT IN HELL” in a Christmas message have the temperament to be president? And when Trump tells America that if he does not win the presidency in 2024, the country will suffer a severe depression, what is he doing? Is he not-so-subtly trying to intimidate you into voting for him?

Therein is the question of why Trump posts tweets that if posted by anyone else would immediately end their presidential campaigns. In 1968, when Senator Ed Muskie cried in Maine, his quest for the White House ended. When Mike Dukakis, wearing a helmet, was photographed awkwardly driving a tank, he was toast. And when Barry Goldwater told America that “Extremism in defense of liberty is no vice,” LBJ’s election was all but guaranteed.

Trump is not yesterday’s presidential candidate—and hopefully not tomorrow’s. He is not even the Trump of 2016. The Trump of eight years ago tweeted but had not yet mastered the art of the angry rant. Eight years ago, Trump’s tweets included calling Senators “embarrassments” and calling critics and media outlets names, but did not include calls to execute, incarcerate, or institutionalize critics (or the judges and prosecutors working to hold him accountable).  Can we say that Trump has evolved?

Trump is headed somewhere with his tweets, but is it to insanity? If that is the case, a third of American voters, probably more, are comfortable with a lunatic in the White House. I do not want to believe that. But equally clearly, given Trump’s obsession with returning to power, he is onto something. One theory is that the Trump tweets and campaign speech rants that many of us find disqualifying are the essence of his campaign. 

If Trump were to stop tweeting, or even tone his tweets down, his audience would evaporate. His tweets would be run of the mill political blather, boring and predictable. They could pass for something that Mike Pence might write. 

When many of us, including “Never Trumpers,” see a headline referencing a new Trump social media post, we read it because it is outrageous. It is not every day that a presidential candidate calls a Black state attorney general “racist” or a governor from his party in a swing state “a stiff” for vetoing a bill.

Maybe the American electorate has lost faith in traditional politics. They hear Joe Biden talking about good news on the economy, but the message is boring, and they don’t listen because Biden is “too old.”  They hear Nikki Haley call for “new leadership” (how original!) and yawn. But when they read a Trump tweet or listen to the highlights of one of his long-winded rally speeches, too many of us hear something worth talking about. Democrats remind each other that Trump is the deranged one and is going to jail anyway. MAGA cultists chuckle to each other that Trump has done it again—he has put the leftists in their place, reminding them of who’s boss and done so with something funny.

Trump, I think, knows that his tweeting, and the same rhetoric when delivered in a speech, works. He does it intentionally. Many tweets may be reckless, such as calling the Special Counsel prosecuting you for insurrection and obstruction of justice “deranged,” but Trump has concluded the benefits outweigh the risks. He believes that if he is elected president, Special Counsel Jack Smith, New York Attorney General Letitia James, Judge Arthur Engoron, and his other tormenters go away, one way or another. 

Trump may also have concluded that without the tweets, his campaign would not fly. Dare I call that genius?

J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and other subjects. 

 

I want to start 2024 with a hopeful thought. Next year could be the year the Eastern Shore finally unloads Andy “Handgun” Harris. A year from now, I dream, we will celebrate Dr. Harris’ retirement from politics.

It is time for Andy Harris to exit the political stage. Here is why:

Harris is an unambiguous supporter of Donald Trump and is expected to endorse his candidacy for 2024. He voted against both Trump impeachments and voted against creating the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack on the U.S. Capitol.  Harris is quoted as saying that Trump’s indictment in connection with January 6 “shows we live in a third world banana republic where the justice system is weaponized against political opponents.”

Harris participated in a December 21, 2020, meeting at the White House where plans were discussed on how to circumvent Trump’s loss of the 2020 presidential election. Harris’ 2022 general election opponent, Heather Mizeur, called on Harris to explain his presence at the meeting and disclose whether he later sought a pardon from Trump.  Harris never responded. 

Harris supported Mike Johnson as Speaker of the House of Representatives. Johnson was a principal architect of Trump’s scheme to block the certification of the 2020 election.

Shortly after the January 6, 2021, insurrection, Harris was stopped by Capitol Police for attempting to carry a loaded handgun onto the floor of the House of Representatives. Harris said he forgot he was carrying. (The incident is the reason I refer to Harris as Andy “Handgun” Harris.)

Harris is a die-hard opponent of efforts to stop gun violence. He voted against the Assault Weapons Ban Act of 2022 and the Active Shooter Alert Act of 2022.

In 2019, Harris opposed the 9/11 Victims Compensation Act. (Why?) Harris was one of only 11 Republicans who voted against the bill. 

In 2019, Harris voted against extending the Violence Against Women Act. (Why?)

In 2021, Harris voted “present” on a resolution condemning QAnon conspiracy theories. The measure passed on a strong bipartisan vote with 371 “aye” votes. 

Despite the importance of a clean, healthy Chesapeake Bay to First District voters, Harris regularly votes against legislation that supports efforts to improve the health of the Bay. He has earned a lifetime score of 3% by the League of Conservation Voters. In the past, Harris has questioned climate change. 

Harris is an adamant opponent of abortion.

Harris is an opponent of LGBTQ+ rights.

Harris advised listeners to use ivermectin to treat COVID, a medicine most often used to rid horses and cows of parasites. The American Medical Association strongly urged against prescribing the drug other than in clinical trials. The Food and Drug Administration warned people against taking the drug. 

Harris broke his promise to leave Congress after six terms. In 2021, in announcing his decision. He blamed “socialists” and “liberals” and said his work was not yet done. (What work?)

If Trump wins the Republican nomination for president in 2024 but loses the general election, it is likely that Dr. Harris will again spring into action to save the political life of his leader. Count on Trump to point to deranged lunatics, communists, and RINOs for stealing the election from him. Plans will be laid to again block certification of his opponent’s win, notwithstanding the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act. If those efforts fail, why shouldn’t we expect more violence?

There are many reasons Andy Harris should not represent the Eastern Shore (or anywhere else) in Congress. His interests are out of sync with Eastern Shore priorities. And last time I checked, an overwhelming majority of voters on the Eastern Shore still supported democracy.

A new year starts in five days. Let that year, 2024, be the year that Dr. Harris leaves Congress. Congress, and American democracy, will be healthier for it. 

The Maryland primary is May 14, 2024. The deadline for candidates to file to run is February 9, 2024. 

J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and other subjects. 

 

Many years from now, historians will call 2023 a bad year. They will study the disturbing political career of Donald Trump. Historians will also document a year of wars in Gaza and Ukraine, both of which involve substantial American commitment and the possibility of expansion into regional and even global conflicts. The country is also suffering from a rising crime rate and an out-of-control border security system.

Had we known what was to transpire in 2023 last year and had the opportunity to skip the year, most of would have shouted, “Yes, please.”

But is the year really a complete bust? No. Even ignoring good things that happened to many of us in our personal lives, there are at least 10 things that can be considered pleasant surprises:

Inflation, especially the price of gasoline, has gone down. All of us are heaving a sigh of relief and crossing our fingers that there will not be a recession. As of today, the economy is looking better every day, and the stock market has reached an all-time high. Are many of us still shocked at the prices of groceries and other essentials? Yes, but the scourge of inflation is abating. 

Workers were empowered in 2023 and successfully fought for higher wages. The UAW strike is the most prominent example, but workers in many other industries flexed their muscles and narrowed the income gap with high income earners. Improving income equality is in everyone’s interest. 

Joe Biden has remained healthy. While many of us would prefer his party to nominate a younger candidate, Biden has proven to be more robust than most of us expected. Even those who disagree with Biden on policy and accuse him of corruption have to be surprised that he is as active as he has been. In my view, his administration has been a success to date, in major part because of Biden’s leadership. 

Prosecutors finally indicted Donald Trump for a variety of crimes. Although many of us on the Eastern Shore disagree with the prosecution of Trump, I am a supporter of the rule of law. I welcome accountability for Trump. (I am aware of allegations against President Biden and his “crime family.”  I have not seen evidence that Joe Biden committed any crimes, but the House of Representatives is now investigating. Biden son has been indicted. Would Donald Trump, Jr. or Jared Kushner have been indicted had Trump won the 2020 presidential race? I do not think so.) 

How about a few things less political? 

The popularity of Taylor Swift. She brought unexpected joy to millions, including many people over age 17. I have yet to sit down and listen to her music but enjoy watching her cheer on the Kansas City Chiefs. 

Here is something you might not have expected on my list:  The Oppenheimer movie. It was brilliantly written and acted. Who would have foreseen a movie about the pros and cons of the invention of the atomic bomb being mainstream entertainment? If you have not seen it, I recommend it. 

The writers’ and actors’ strikes are over. This means that unexpectedly high-quality entertainment is coming back. This year a plethora of excellent entertainment was released. Among my favorites are Slow Horses, The Morning Show, Yellowstone, and Lessons in Chemistry.

Looking closer to home, we did not have a hurricane on the Eastern Shore this year. And efforts to improve the health of the bay and to fight climate change continue. Awareness of the consequences of inadequately considered development seems to be increasing. I hope I am right. 

Culture on the Eastern Shore continues to grow richer. The Waterfowl Festival was great this year (again). World-class concerts are available at the Prager Family Center for the Arts, The Avalon, and elsewhere. The Chesapeake Bay Maritime Museum’s Visitor Center is open. As 2023 ends, the Eastern Shore is a better place to live, culturally, than it was a year ago.

Number 10 is the Spy Newspapers. You really cannot call the continued success and growth of The Spy a “pleasant surprise,” because it was also strong in past years. The Eastern Shore is fortunate to have a non-profit newspaper that is “ultra-local focused.”  I rely on The Spy to keep an eye on the Eastern Shore. I find something of value in every issue. 

Happy Holidays!

J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and other subjects. 

 

With the Iowa caucuses less than two months away, the papers are awash in stories on why Joe Biden will lose in 2024. He is too old. The public does not understand all the good things he has made happen. Donald Trump’s base is just too dug in to shrink, even in the face of a legal Armageddon. And they perceive that Joe Biden’s presidency has hurt them.

This last claim has me scratching my head. I have thought long and hard about Joe Biden but have not once thought that his time in the White House has hurt me. Apparently, I am missing something. Last week I read a Wall Street Journal poll conducted on December 4 that found that 53 percent of respondents indicated that “Biden’s policies have hurt me personally.”  This compares with only 37 percent who claim that Trump’s policies have hurt them.

Respondents in polls routinely blame incumbent presidents for things like soaring prices, crime, and responses to crises deemed insufficient (think of George W. Bush’s response to Hurricane Katrina). They also blame incumbents for things like climate change, falling stock markets, and the rise of dictators like Vladimir Putin. The blame is legitimate, but only to a degree. If respondents thought more about it, they might accept that a rise in the price of gasoline might have been caused by OPEC or by disruptions in the supply chain. Similarly, they might accept that a rise in carjackings in Washington might not have resulted from something President Biden did.

I do not like soaring prices, crime, Putin, war, and a lot of other societal and economic problems any more than anybody else but still think Biden is getting a bum rap. Just to look at crime—Biden has not “defunded” police, does not hate the police, and has not coddled criminals. I do not hold him responsible for increases in crime. And if the solution to combatting crime is to shoot drug dealers, mandate racist stop-and-frisk programs, increase incarceration for minor crimes, and abandon efforts to reform policing, count me out. I want less crime but not at the cost of establishing a police state. 

But what about other results in the WSJ poll? Incredibly, 49 percent of respondents indicated that Trump’s policies have helped them while only 23 percent found the same about Biden’s policies.

What is going on here? It is possible that the poll was just too small, consisting of 1,500 phone calls and text messages. Also, the poll did not indicate how the sample was chosen. If we are talking about 1,500 Alabamians or, sadly, 1,500 people on the Eastern Shore of Maryland, maybe the poll makes sense. But what, I wonder, are the Biden policies that respondents said personally hurt them really Biden’s fault?

Setting aside things like permitting the Department of Justice to prosecute crimes associated with the January 6 insurrection, a policy that would prompt Proud Boys, Trump, and several hundred January 6 rioters to face prosecution, it is hard to figure out what the issues are. I suspect the answers are things like, “Biden raised the price of gas,” or “Biden defunded the police and promoted crime,” or “Biden discriminates against White people.”  But are any of these things that Biden should be held accountable for? I do not think so.

Importantly, in looking at inflation, the impact of Biden’s massive spending bills needs to be looked at in the context of where the money was spent. In the case of the infrastructure bill, the money is going to rebuild failing roads, bridges, the electrical grid, and to replace lead pipes. Most of us would accept these expenditures as needed if asked about them separately. And, If Biden’s spending bills are to blame for inflation, he should also get credit for keeping the economy out of recession. Is anyone giving Biden credit for keeping us out of an economic recession? 

Finally, let’s remember that the U.S. economy simply is not controlled by one person, even the president of the U.S. That is why I am unable to blame Biden for inflation or to give him primary credit for low unemployment rates. And I am definitely not ready to credit Trump for good economic developments, like a booming stock market, or to pretend that the massive tax cuts enacted under his watch did not contribute to today’s inflation.

The same WSJ poll asked the 1,500 respondents whether Trump or Biden is “better able” to oversee certain issues. I choked at the reference to Trump’s abilities because he governed by “gut instinct,” refusing to attend national security briefings or rely on experts. What Trump abilities are involved here? President Biden’s abilities, of course, are also questioned by many, but he clearly relies heavily on a team of highly qualified, able advisors. Even if you disagree with various Biden policies, I think, you have to give him the edge on “ability.”  Right?

The poll found that respondents view Trump as more “able” than Biden to oversee the economy, inflation, crime, border security, and “Israel-Hamas.”  Biden edged out Trump in only two categories:  Abortion and “Tone in Politics.”  Frankly, had the poll found that Trump is more able to oversee the issue of tone in politics, I would have thrown away the paper reporting on the poll, and you would not be reading this article. 

Is it possible that Trump really is more able than Biden and that Biden’s policies hurt more people personally than Trump’s did? I do not think so. As president and since leaving office, Trump has led an assault on people of color, the LGBQT community, the media, and many others. Biden has limited his attacks to those denying anyone their civil rights.

How do you explain a poll that seems to endorse a return of Trump to the White House? One answer is to acknowledge that lies work when running for office in a country where too many of us accept claims without verifying or at least questioning them. Trump tells working people that Biden’s policies will flood the country with undocumented immigrants, fentanyl, criminals, communists, and other undesirables. Unfortunately, many people believe him. The same people believe Trump when he says he could end the war in Ukraine in “one day,” prevent wars from breaking out, and won the 2020 presidential election. 

I worry for the future of America when the only politician who lies more than George Santos is shown in a poll to beat Joe Biden if the 2024 election is Biden against Trump. Our only hope is that between now and November of next year, Trump is found guilty of at least some of the 91 felonies he’s charged with, and the public still sufficiently believes in the legitimacy of the U.S. legal system to conclude that Trump, regardless of his abilities and love for flag-hugging working people, is unfit for office.

J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and other subjects. 

 

Since January, there has been a stench in the halls of Congress. That is when George Santos arrived in D.C. to represent the good citizens of New York’s Third Congressional District. As the first Brazilian American to serve in Congress, there was considerable interest in the new legislator. He had won in a Democratic district. His election contributed to the slim Republican majority in the House.

On December 1, The House flushed the toilet. Although long overdue, the action was a rare instance of bipartisan cooperation. A breath of fresh air.

Since Santos left the Capitol grounds, saying, “To hell with this place,” three people have asked me what Santos will do next. Given the offenses alleged against him and documented in a House Ethics Committee report, one might comment, “Who cares?” The three people asking about Santos, however, seemed somehow concerned about him. One asked, “How will he ever get another job?” I responded, “I don’t think Santos ever wanted one.”

Santos may end up in jail, given the felonies alleged against him. A residential, lock-down mental health facility may also lie in his future. Given his remarkable ability to lie, the National Institute of Mental Health may also want to spend time with Santos. The Guinness Book may wish to study Santos to update its 2024 edition.

My answer to the question of what is next for Santos is based on an analysis of Santos’ character and that of Donald Trump’s. The two men are surprisingly similar in some ways. While Trump has never claimed to be gay or a former Goldman Sachs employee, both are skilled and persistent liars. Neither hesitates to lie in the face of witnesses, photos, and videos disproving their lies. And both see themselves as victims. As expulsion approached, Santos claimed that he had been bullied by fellow members of Congress. Trump claims that he is the victim of a small army of deranged, Trump-hating prosecutors and judges, RINOs, communists, and lunatics.

A New York State judge found Trump guilty of fraud. The defeated ex-president has also been accused of cheating tenants of his buildings by overcharging them, evading state and federal taxes, not paying vendors, and abusing the legal system to prevent his victims from holding him accountable in court. Santos has not been able to threaten anyone with endless litigation, but it is easy to imagine him doing so if he had Trump’s resources. Santos made fraudulent charges on the credit cards of people dumb enough to contribute to his campaign. Trump set up a confusing website for “recurring” contributions that led some contributors to inadvertently commit to monthly rather than one-time contributions. It is easy to imagine Santos engaging in similar trickery.

George Santos was in Congress for about 11 months. During this time, there is little evidence that he ever worked on legislation or tried to fulfill the responsibilities of being a congressman. Trump was president for four years and routinely skipped security briefings, made policy by “gut instinct,” watched a lot of television, played golf, and plotted to overturn the 2020 presidential election, with the first discussions occurring before election day. The two men share a disdain for work. They are both comfortable enjoying elective office without doing any work. My analysis of Santos and Trump led me to believe that Trump should resist the temptation of selecting Tucker Carlson, Kari Lake, Marjorie Taylor Green, Matt Gaetz, or Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban as his running mate and choose George Santos instead.

Some may suggest that voters will reject a candidate under criminal indictment. Trump has already proven that assumption to be wrong. Others wonder what would happen if someone were elected to national office and later was convicted of a felony. Trump is expected to pardon himself should he regain the White House in the 2024 election or through a successful coup. Logically, he could pardon Santos at the same time he pardons himself. He could also send the army in to prevent the enforcement of any state conviction against himself or his VP.

Trump and Santos are two peas in a pod. It is the ideal Republican ticket.

J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and other subjects. 

 

Less than a year from now, the United States may be in the grip of another Trump-generated Constitutional crisis. The presidential election will be over—at least for those of us who believe in the Constitution and are ready to accept the outcome of the election even if our preferred candidate loses.

Unfortunately, the probability of another Constitutional crisis—another insurrection—is increasing. Donald Trump is again running for president and is unlikely to win without cheating. Or so one can hope.

Why does Trump remain at the center of the American political stage? Despite Trump’s legal, financial, and psychological problems, many Republicans still prefer him as their standard bearer over anyone else. How a foul-mouthed candidate who led Republicans to a mid-term election debacle last year, who has been described as a rapist by a New York Judge, and is facing 41 felony counts, remains popular defies understanding. One must ask, is Trump’s nomination and possible election to another term as president inevitable?

Let’s hope not. But it will take more than hope to get the defeated election denier off the political stage. If we know nothing else about Trump, it is that he will not easily give up his dream of returning to power. To prevent Trump’s return to the White House, it will take a village. That village would be composed of people willing to try to persuade Trump supporters to walk away from their candidate. Put another way, the effort is getting Trump supporters to think about what values they are supporting in continuing to choose Trump over the alternatives.

Over the Thanksgiving weekend, I jotted down a list of five qualities needed in a successful American president. At the top of the list is allegiance to the Constitution. The other qualities are honesty, humility, sanity, and commitment. Trump has none of these qualities. The effort to persuade Trump supporters to abandon Trump requires, I think, getting them to reassess their support for Trump through this or a similar analysis.

Trump regularly professes his love for America. Have you seen the picture of him hugging an American flag at a campaign rally? But that love does not include the Constitution. In 2022 he wrote, “A Massive [Election] Fraud of this type and magnitude allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution.” The Constitution includes the Bill of Rights guaranteeing free speech, freedom of religion and a number of other rights. 

Trump’s practice of honesty is reflected by its absence. The Washington Post and other newspapers have called him out for telling more than 10,000 lies. More importantly, former Trump administration officials now acknowledge that Trump knew he had lost the 2020 election and continued to claim otherwise. Is better proof of Trump’s dishonesty possible?

What will it take to convince Republican voters who still believe Trump won the 2020 election that he did not? If Trump knew he lost and knew that the only way to retain power was to set aside the Constitution, why do so many Republicans continue to believe the lies?

And what about humility? Trump has none. But Trump supporters seem to admire that. Trump, a self-described genius, believed he was so smart that he did not need to listen to national security briefings, consult with subject matter experts, or even think about decisions before he made them. The result was four years of “policymaking by gut instinct” that alienated allies, created worries of wars with North Korea and others, resulting in a constant state of chaos. 

Interested in a humble president? Try Joe Biden. Biden understands that the job of president is that of leader of a team. In contrast to Trump, Biden’s cabinet and key advisors are experts in their fields, have been free of scandal, and have guided Biden administration policies. 

When I listen to Trump campaign rallies, I often turn them off when they descend into insane rantings. When Trump condemns special counsel Jack Smith as “deranged,” promises to put him and various judges and other prosecutors in inpatient psychiatric care, he tells us “I am your retribution” and “I am your justice.”  That is insanity. What will it take to get Trumpers to see these speeches as pathological? 

Finally, consider what I call commitment. In 2016, when Trump was declared the winner of the presidential election, he saw himself as winning a prize. He won four years of the right to fly around in a 747, to be on TV constantly, and to enjoy all the perks of the office. He did not see himself as accepting an exceptionally demanding job.

The vision of a president who spent mornings watching cable news, regularly played golf throughout his presidency, and devoted hours to Twitter and Facebook (before being banned), is deeply troubling. We need a president who accepts the responsibilities of the presidency. Trump is not that guy.

I am starting to question whether Trump voters will wake up before it is too late for his party to choose someone else to lead their ticket. Anyone else would be an improvement. 

I salute those in the Republican party who are calling out Trump and suggesting he drop out of the race. I also salute journalists and media who are stepping up efforts to persuade Trumpers that their leader is a threat to democracy and is not their friend.

Will these efforts work? I retain hope that a combination of things will finally rid us of Trump. The GOP still has time to find an alternative candidate, but it will take a village, including many of us who are not Republicans and do not plan to vote for the party’s candidate to make that happen. 

Be part of that village. If you see something (a dangerous candidate who has already admitted to rejecting democracy), do something. 

J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and other subjects.