Roughly half of Maryland voters said they would vote to reelect Gov. Wes Moore to a second term, even as the first-term Democrat’s job approval numbers continue a downward trend.
The poll released Tuesday by Annapolis-based Gonzales Research & Media represents a mixed bag for the governor.
“If the election were today, Moore would be reelected, but the election isn’t today,” said Patrick Gonzales, a veteran state pollster. “It’s 10 months away. We have a session that is going to be rather problematic, I suspect, for the governor. Where we are six months from now, where we are on Labor Day, that’s going to matter. That’s how I see it.”
The poll of 808 registered Maryland voters who said they were likely to vote in 2026 was conducted between Dec. 21 and Jan. 6. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5%.
Gonzales also asked who voters would support if the 2026 election were held today.
Moore, with 49.9%, tops a generic Republican and third-party candidate. The number is driven by nearly 76% of Democrats who said they would give Moore a second term.
Democrats hold a 2-1 registration advantage over Republicans in Maryland, making up slightly more than 50% of all registered voters in the state.
Predictably, 81% of Republicans said they would back a Republican candidate. Unaffiliated voters are more evenly split, with 35% saying they would vote for Moore and 32% favoring the unnamed Republican.
Gonzales noted that polling data suggests voter discontent over pocketbook issues: affordability, the economy and taxes. Nearly six in 10 voters who responded said they believe they are paying too much in taxes.
“They’re paying too much for their electricity,” he said. “They’re paying too much in taxes and people are [angry].”
All of which is a harbinger for a potential pocketbook election, he said.
Gov. Wes Moore has seen a narrowing of the separation between voters who approve of his job performance and those who disapprove since entering office. (Gonzales Research & Media Services
Gonzales noted that of those who said they pay too much in taxes, “a hypothetical Republican candidate bests Moore by 13 points, 47% to 34%.”
Another 41% said they believe they pay “the right amount” in taxes. Just 1% said they believe they should pay more.
Last year, Moore and the General Assembly increased taxes by a projected $1.6 billion, part of a plan to close a projected $3.3 billion structural budget deficit.
The expectation was that the tax increase, coupled with one-time fund shifts and some cuts, would fill the spending gap and leave $300 million for the fiscal 2028 budget year.
Those expectations fizzled. The state faces a $1.5 billion projected structural deficit for the coming budget year. Officials point the finger at federal actions including the loss of 25,000 federal jobs since President Donald Trump took office.
Republican candidates in recent history enjoyed late election year surges tied to one or more so-called pocketbook issues. In 1994, Ellen Sauerbrey lost to Parris Glendening by just 6,000 voters. In 2002, Robert Ehrlich became the first Republican elected governor in nearly four decades. In 2014, Larry Hogan won the first of two consecutive elections. He was the first Republican to do so since Theodore McKeldin.
Downward job approval trend continues
Moore entered office in 2023 enjoying approval of roughly six in 10 Marylanders. He peaked in Gonzales’ September 2024 poll, when 64% of those surveyed approved of his efforts. The gap between those who approved and those who disapproved in that poll was 35 points.
Since then, there has been a downward trend. Last March, there was a 19-point separation. In Tuesday’s poll, 52% said they approve of the job Moore is doing compared to 41% who disapprove, three points lower than a Gonzales survey in March 2025. The governor has performed similarly in other surveys, including the Institute for Politics at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County.
Beneath those top-line numbers in the Gonzales poll, the survey shows a continuing trend of voters who are changing their minds about Moore’s efforts.
The current poll shows an 11-point separation between those who approve and those who disapprove. And for the first time since Gonzales asked about Moore’s job performance, the number of those who said they strongly disapprove is larger than those who strongly approve.
Roughly one voter in three said they strongly disapproved of Moore’s job performance heading into the final session of the current term — a 7-point change from March.
Moore lost ground with Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated voters. While 73% of Democrats approved of Moore’s performance, that was down from 83% in March 2025. At the same time, those who disapproved increased five points, to 18%.
In March, one-fifth of unaffiliated voters declined to offer an opinion on Moore’s job performance. Now, just 10% declined to answer: 41% of independent voters approve of the governor’s performance — a 7-point increase from March — but 49% said they disapproved, also an increase of seven points.
Democratic optimism
Moore’s job approval numbers come even as the Gonzales poll shows an uptick in overall sentiment about the direction of the state.
Of those surveyed, 47% said the state is moving in the right direction compared to 44% who said the state is on the wrong track.
The results are an improvement from last March when 50% said the state was on the wrong track and 41% said things were moving in the right direction.
The results don’t track directly with Moore’s job approval numbers.
“It’s not solely tied to whether people think taxes are too high,” Gonzales said. “There are other factors that play into what seems like a contradiction in the poll. I wouldn’t get all bollixed up on that.”
Instead, Gonzales said national politics and the impending midterm elections — a referendum on Trump — may be in play. Democrats nationally are eying the potential to retake a majority in the U.S. House in November.
“When we did the poll in March, Trump had just taken office and Democrats were a bit demoralized,” Gonzales said. “Now they’ve got that eye of the tiger, Rocky and Apollo Creed running on the beach mentality back and 70% of Democrats see things moving in the right direction for them.”
by Bryan P. Sears, Maryland Matters
January 13, 2026
Maryland Matters is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Maryland Matters maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Steve Crane for questions: [email protected].
Write a Letter to the Editor on this Article
We encourage readers to offer their point of view on this article by submitting the following form. Editing is sometimes necessary and is done at the discretion of the editorial staff.