The world held its breath the morning of February 3, 2025. Trump’s tariffs on Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods were scheduled to go into effect. Stock markets around the globe panicked. Initial losses were in the billions. Only when Mexico’s President Claudia Scheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced they were deploying more troops at their borders with the U.S. as an additional deterrent to the smuggling of people and drugs in the U.S. did President Trump delay the 25 percent tariffs.
Already Trump is pounding his chest, congratulating himself for bullying our neighbors. As I write this, China has responded to the 10 percent increase on Chinese goods with retaliatory tariffs and other actions. China also announced a new requirement for export licenses for five metals used for various industrial and defense industries. A trade war with China may have begun.
The markets believe that Trump was bluffing, but Trump will claim that his threats of draconian tariffs are real. And his apparent success at making Canada and Mexico offers they couldn’t refuse will only encourage Trump to threaten—and impose—more tariffs against more countries.
Trump is doing what thugs do—resorting to threats instead of reason or dialogue to get his way. Trump expects to be declared a national hero for what he did, and what he threatens to do.
I am not only not ready to congratulate Trump for a brilliant foreign policy move; I’m ready to see him impeached for it. Trump has told Mexico and Canada that they are not our allies—they are our abusers. And Trump is using threats to end that abuse. If you were Prime Minister of Canada or President of Mexico, how long would it take you to get on the phone to President Xi and initiate talks at how best to respond to the U.S.?
President Trump came into office with peaceful borders with Canada and Mexico. That may come to an end soon. Canada logically might be thinking about allowing the Chinese to open a military base in Manitoba or Alberta. And Mexico, which already perceives itself to be economically exploited by the U.S., might want to embrace China, or even Russia.
Allies do not abuse one another. They do not propose annexing each other or ridicule their allies’ leaders. They work together for their mutual security and prosperity.
I went to graduate school in Toronto. I never once saw Canadians as adversaries or exploiters because they weren’t. Canadians, for the time being, are our friends. Instead of bullying and threatening them, the U.S. should work in tandem with them to address issues that seem to motivate Trump’s rash actions. (With Trump, you can never be sure what drives his actions.)
Trump seems to assume that Americans, or, in his mind, the ones who are not lunatics, support his actions. This will change if he throws the American economy into chaos which is what he appears to be doing.
Trump’s threats of massive tariffs should be seen as the actions of an idiot playing with a stick of dynamite. If Trump’s strategy, based on the aggressive and sometimes illegal practices of The Trump Organization in the real estate business, backfires, it may not be possible to “put the economy back together again” by simply repealing the ill-conceived tariffs. The memory of the tariffs and the recklessness of Trump will remain for many years. Our allies will not forget that America is capable of electing someone like Trump president and letting him recklessly abuse them.
It is too early to suggest that the world will end because of what Trump did on February 3, just as it is also naïve to suggest that his tariff threat worked with Mexico and Canada.
How will China respond to the Trump tariffs if an agreement is not reached to continue talks? More retaliatory tariffs are probable. China will also seek retribution in illegal ways, by increasing industrial spying and intellectual property theft and with additional displays of its military might. In other words, China’s reaction will be different than that of Mexico and China.
It is not too early to start praying that Trump will either realize the mistake of using tariffs as a weapon or somehow be prevented from doing so again.
Trump is making the world a more dangerous place with his reckless tariff policy. American consumers will pay more for goods. American industry dependent on supply chains and markets in Mexico, Canada, and China will suffer. And the risk of a tariff war with China evolving into something worse is increasing. Thank you, Donald Trump.
J.E. Dean writes on politics, government, and, too infrequently, other subjects. A former counsel on Capitol Hill and public affairs consultant, Dean also writes for Dean’s List on Medium and Dean’s Issues & Insights on Substack.
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