Polls show overwhelming support for Question 1, the ballot question that would guarantee “reproductive freedom” as part of the state constitution, but advocates on both sides of the issue say that’s not the end of the fight.
In fact, they say, it’s a reason to fight hard until the end.
With a recent University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Institute of Politics poll showing that 69% of likely voters will vote for Question 1 and just 21% of respondents planning to vote against it, both sides of the issue say they want to ensure that their voters do not get complacent because of the seemingly insurmountable gap.
Abortion rights advocates want to keep that lead strong on Election Day and opponents need every vote they can get to try to defeat the measure in abortion-friendly Maryland.
The UMBC poll results reaffirm a widely understood reality, that Maryland voters are largely in support of protecting abortion access across the state. But polling numbers are only valuable if people get out and vote, said Erin Bradley, chair of Freedom in Reproduction-Maryland (FIRM).
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“The only way we realize those numbers is if everybody does it. If people get really satisfied with the number and that wide margin of error, and they may stay home, then we run the risk of not winning,” she said.
“That’s really the risk here: That everyone feels that way, and far too many people stay home and we wind up losing — not because people aren’t supportive, not because it’s the will of Marylanders, but just because everyone was really comfortable with the nice lead and decided it was safe to skip it,” Bradley said.
She said that the promising poll numbers do not mean FIRM advocates will relax their advocacy efforts. In fact, it’s reason to keep them going.
On the other end of the abortion spectrum, anti-abortion advocates are also working to ensure that their voters are not discouraged by the apparent popularity of Question 1 and decide to sit out the election as a result.
Jeffrey Trimbath, president of the Maryland Family Institute, said that as the minority position in Maryland, anti-abortion groups are “always concerned about complacency of voters.”
“I think that’s always the case for us. Perhaps especially so with this question,” Trimbath said. “And so, it’s up to us to try to stay engaged and educate as many people as we can and to provide hope for people who have a pro-life perspective on these things.”
While the advocates fret over turnout in November, Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor for Inside Elections, says they shouldn’t worry too much — abortion is not the only draw for Maryland voters this election.
The U.S. Senate race between former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) will draw people to vote, but the presidential election is the real pull.
That’s really the risk here: That everyone feels that way, and far too many people stay home and we wind up losing — not because people aren’t supportive, not because it’s the will of Marylanders, but just because everyone was really comfortable with the nice lead and decided it was safe to skip it.
– Erin Bradley, chair, Freedom in Reproduction-Maryland
“Ultimately, the race at the top of the ticket is what’s going to drive voter turnout here, more so than any sort of down-ballot race or measure,” Rubashkin said. “Especially in a state like Maryland. There are a couple things about Maryland that are somewhat more unique: high voter turnout historically, high levels of civic engagement … and one of the most anti-Trump states.
“In an election with Trump on the ballot and a blockbuster Senate race, I don’t think that confidence in the passage of the abortion rights ballot measure is going to depress turnout at all, because it’s only a small part of the calculations,” Rubashkin said.
Still, abortion rights and anti-abortion advocates are pushing forward in their campaigns just to be sure.
Trimbath said that campaign efforts to oppose the ballot measure from now until Election Day will focus on letting voters know about their grievances with the ballot measure, one of which is a claim that it would create a legal loophole that result in any number of far-reaching possible and unforeseen scenarios.
“For us it means that we need to get to as many people as we can and tell them the truth of what this means,” Trimbath said.
Group supporting abortion ballot question launches digital ad
Rubashkin said that the results of the UMBC poll will not likely discourage any anti-abortion advocate that was going to vote against Question 1, since they knew going in that “you’re already the underdog. You understand you are the minority of the state.”
“And so from the beginning, I think you’ve probably been operating with the assumption that it probably was going to be an unsuccessful effort on your part,” Rubashkin said. “So, I don’t think another poll showing you down 30, 40 points is going to do all that much difference on whether you are going to show up or not.”
That said, Bradley with FIRM said that her organization is continuing outreach efforts in the days leading up to the election to ensure that their supporters aren’t swayed by the opposition, so the ballot measure succeeds with the current projected lead.
FIRM just launched a $500,000 digital ad campaign in support of the measure, which is the largest media expenditure on behalf of the ballot question so far.
“It’s really just reminding people about the importance of this. It is our time, it is our opportunity,” Bradley said. “69% of Marylanders, we’re led to believe through polling, support this. It’s their opportunity to make sure that it gets across the finish line.”
by Danielle J. Brown, Maryland Matters
October 14, 2024
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