“Kings, and Persons of Sovereign authority, because of their Independency, are in continual jealousies… having their weapons pointing, and their eyes fixed on one another.” Thomas Hobbes, Leviathan

International Relations is not some new term thought up by a “woke” celebrity.  Thomas Hobbes, who is said to be the philosopher-mind behind strict realism in foreign policy, recognized the importance of relationships. He believed “all acts are ultimately self-serving–that in a state of nature, humans would behave completely selfishly. He concludes that humanity’s natural condition is a state of perpetual war, fear, and amorality, and that only government can hold a society together.”

The “government” we have relied on for almost 80 years is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Yes, we have relied on ourselves, but we have understood that we cannot stand astride the globe ordering nations around. Humanity won’t allow it.

So let me go from 17th-century Hobbes to today and to NATO. When we think of Europe, we are likely to think of a special moment in Paris where we gather with friends at a sidewalk cafe. Or, an awe-inspiring vista in Norway. Yes, that too is NATO, which is a voluntary coalition of mostly like-minded nations to encourage peace while being prepared for war. It spans the North Atlantic Ocean while also coordinating with non-NATO, but like-minded Asian nations.

And if I look at the fiscal affairs of NATO, the United States is the largest contributor (approximately 16%) but our defense industries prosper as NATO nations are among the biggest customers.

As large and strong as the U.S. is, we, from time to time, have gone to war to defend ourselves. And we do so confident that our allies will be with us. In the Afghanistan War, almost 1,000 Danish troops joined us.

Denmark is much in the news today because President Trump has said the U.S. intends to take its territory known as Greenland. Trump’s solo act has resulted in France and Germany sending troops to Greenland. Trump has weaponized foreign policy and aimed it at NATO. Hobbes’s darker side would reflexively understand.

Trump claims we need Greenland as a defensive barrier against China and Russia. We have a military base in Greenland and its leaders have invited a broader and deeper relationship. But take it from our ally Denmark?

You might recall that the President also began his new term by insulting Canada. He said Canada was our 51st State and then began discriminatory moves in trade. The result is an estimated loss of $4 to $6 billion in tourism and deep trade revenue losses, even though exact figures are not available.

Yes, the President leaned into NATO allies, telling them to step up in both financial support and their own defense expenditures. If NATO is a shared responsibility, and it is, that was a good move. But Trump has now weaponized foreign policy and turned the gun on us.

Now Trump says we need a 50% increase in defense spending in the 2027 budget—from $901 billion in 2026 to $1.5 trillion in 2027. Maybe we are going to take on the world by ourselves. Facing a $38 trillion dollar national debt this kind of leap is not only excessive it is suicidal.

And what about comity, “considerate behavior toward others”. We know in our lives and complexity of associations that considerate behavior pays dividends. Yet at some point Trump went from merely self-serving to head scratching paranoia. Even his political friends are pushing back on Greenland.

Politics is the only answer. The sooner he is a lame duck and treated like one his power will be diminished. I hate to suggest that, but when the Chief acts like Dr. Strangelove, something must be done.

Let me end where I began with Thomas Hobbes. Why would America want to be complicit in creating a Hobbesian environment? It makes no sense. Those who represent us in Washington need to push back—hard.

So let me give the final word to Professor Barnislav Slanthev, University of California, San Diego.

“To the idiots blabbering blithely about Greenland and “U.S. doesn’t need NATO,” do us all a favor and check what U.S. power projection requires and what losing our presence in Europe, with all the bases and logistical infrastructure to support global deployments, would entail. Next check what it would cost us to man all the resulting gaps in the Atlantic and Arctic defense, and explain where we’re going to build substitute ports and bases if we wish to retain a foothold in the Middle East. I know you people seem to think that the U.S. magically teleports entire brigades thousands of miles away or that aircraft carriers can just float around for years on their own, but this is truly unserious bullshit. If you thought America was spending “too much” on defense because of NATO, just wait until you learn what we would have to spend without NATO to maintain even a fraction of our global influence.”

Losing NATO — which is what will happen if we attempt to coerce Denmark (read Article I) — will be the surest and fastest way to global decline. Now, if you are Russia or China, you would surely welcome this. But if you are an American, you wouldn’t.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

Who knew? There is still a Blue Dog Caucus in the Democratic Party, even as New Yorkers elect a socialist as Mayor of America’s largest city. The Caucus is said “to be an official caucus in the House of Representatives comprised of “fiscally-responsible Democrats who are leading the way to find common sense solutions.”

And I found out that pearl, “small”, in the New York Times. The Caucuses continuing existence showed up in an article about a Member of Congress from a rural district in Washington State. Her name: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.

At the beginning of the interview, Perez quoted from the gospel of Luke: “He who is faithful in a small thing is faithful in a great thing also.” Underscoring small she proposed an amendment to a bill because we are plagued with  “headlight brightness.” The amendment urges “the Secretary of Transportation to study the impacts of headlight brightness on the vision and safety of drivers, pedestrians, and other road users, as well as in regard to different terrain, such as hills and curves.”

Her signature cause is informed by her disgust with a never-ending stream of products that cannot be repaired. She co-owned an auto repair and machine shop with her husband. And I quote from Perez: “We don’t want to be perpetual renters of disposable crap”. She refers to much of what we own as items simply rented.

Thankfully, the article didn’t go into what she thinks about the President. We are forced to overindulge his performative behavior. In one very simple way Representative Perez is his antithesis. He is wedded to big things. The “Big Beautiful Bill”, for example, was biblical in its length. Even the best-informed got entangled in the details.

And if we want to simplify, much must be done locally. Yes, City Councils. Sparks will fly, but at the end of the day you will have had a chance to weigh in. And, much will have to be done by all of us as buyers.

My wife and I became beekeepers shortly after the century’s turn. We joined a beekeeping club. The Members bought, sold, repaired, and combined to buy less expensively. The leader of the club would drive ten plus hours to buy nuclei of bee hives called “nucs,” and everybody who bought one or more would show up with their pickup trucks the next morning, get their supply, and then hive them.

My wife and I were newbies, and a seasoned beekeeper offered his services free of charge to help us. He adamantly refused to take money.

President Trump should use his tariffs on disposable goods while letting what Representative Perez would call “goods we own” and can repair be tariff-free. Indeed maybe her Party should go beyond powerful identity groups and make small business a part of their platform. I think it would be popular and help revive businesses that fix the repairable while taking some pressure off landfills.

My guess is her party will run against Trumpism and not on a platform aimed at simplification. Or, as she might envision it, “ownership” so that those who want to cut the thread or maybe chain link binding us to Big Tech can do so. It would be refreshing at the next inaugural to see something other than Big Tech moguls in the prize seats.

More recently I have started paying attention to the Town Council where I live. The Council listens; my Member of Congress is too busy being herded around to pay any attention. Trump has a leash on him.

Now decentralization doesn’t assure happiness. I used to live in New York City and would be furious with the new Mayor’s radical moves embracing socialism. But I would know that next time around I could try to do something about it.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

It would be difficult to pinpoint the moment when a banned substance—marijuana—became “recreational”. Right along there with swimming and jogging. Kudos to the marketing wizards. If you were a media editor, as the newly seductive title began to appear, you should say, “I’m sorry”.

When I grew up, marijuana was around but culturally frowned on. But of course, forbidden stuff, if it provides momentary pleasure or temporary relief, always has a following, even if it is underground. And this is regardless of warnings about adverse consequences. Warnings for some add to the allure.

Exploiting weakness, whether above or below ground, is often good business. So mind-altering drugs, the lure of easy money, pornography, and more can be expected. “Come on in,” the midway barker cries.

Societal weakness is human. Governments presumably exist to protect, but they, too, cannot avoid temptation. As taxpayers pushed back on higher taxes,  many governments got into the predator businesses. So now we have not just gambling from the TV couch, but it’s aggressive marketing. Marketing aimed at our weaknesses. Temptation wrapped in seductive visuals, music and animation. And, if there is little or no cultural pushback the seductive quickly overwhelms.   

The predator forces, now playing on a field where morals have given way to values, win. And there are few seductive activities that don’t pay the State. So “weed” becomes either recreational or medical marijuana. Dress it up.

In a perfect world, choice makes sense. RFK Jr. must think we are in that perfect world as he takes on the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). Without an evidentiary-based rationale, he states that certain vaccines used to protect children might cause threatening conditions later in life. And when the pushback comes, he says let parents decide. Let them decide whether their children, for example, should be vaccinated against Hepatitis B. Parents, not the CDC, are apparently in a better position to weigh risks and potential protection. Really?

We have a CDC because scale and patient capital is needed to do comprehensive benefit and threat assessments. And we need an agency with a thoroughly international perspective to comprehensively decide whether we should protect against risks. Back home, where few want to be jabbed, we are left to wonder and inquire of our favorite chatbot.

So let me close with this thought from Olivier Roy: “in a deculturated world, millions of young people bereft of anything resembling a tradition have been left susceptible to ideas that will leave them miserable and defeated.” What about the not-so-young?

There is certainly nothing wrong with criticizing culture. Americans are rather good at it. But when it comes to what we used to call morals, we should at least pause and ask questions. What we should ask, is the case for legalizing the “recreational” use of marijuana? What is the evidence pro and con on the lasting consequences? Recent reports are not encouraging.

And, should gambling on whether the next pitch is going to be a ball or strike, from our living room chair, be a legitimate source of government revenue?

Relatedly, who should pay for reversing the downward personal trajectory of drug users and obsessive gamblers? Much of the damage cannot be measured in dollars. Rehabilitation is a growth industry.

Or, turning back to pathology, should the top political appointee presiding over health policy urge parental judgment to supplant the CDC? Or, using Roy’s awkward word, deculturate, should the President and RFK Jr be leading the charge?

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

“Defining Deviancy Down” is a 1993 essay by sociologist and then U.S. Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan. Its core idea is “societies survive disorder by redefining it—at the cost of moral and social coherence.”

In my lifetime, America has redefined commerce. Scale now dominates.

We have redefined marijuana—it is now “recreational”.

Gambling has been redefined as “fun” and is featured in promotions during games.

Love is now “making love,” and too often friendship has been caught up in a transactional zeitgeist—“what is in it for me.”

And maybe most tellingly, let’s look at governance or what we call politics.

The great fisherman, Donald Trump, is certainly good at chumming the water. Trump stands tall on the bow deck of the statecraft, tossing pieces of fish in the water.

I have seen what chum does. Chumming is baiting the water with stuff fish like to eat and then slipping a hook into one or more of the baits. Trump on most days chums the water, much of the media and a too credulous audience rush to the bait. I want to shout: “watch out for the hooks.”

The President wants history to record him as a mythic leader. In his view, right up there with Washington and Lincoln. He will be recognized not as a great leader but as a mythic chummer. Maria Machado’s, Venezuela’s opposition leader, harrowing journey from Venezuela to Norway was mythic. She deserved the Nobel recognition.

But when it comes to chumming, wow! I watched its effect when I objected to the President’s use of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) regulatory authority to help favored media at the expense of free speech. In a 48-hour cycle, I was called a number of times and interviewed.  But then the circus left town—my phone quit ringing.

The larger question: has Trump bent America’s institutions of government in such an egregious way that they will not straighten out?  Or will a true democrat (not the party) again occupy the White House? And, will the institutions that balance America’s government once again serve as intended?

But let me return to the chum. The public, especially independent voters, have begun to rebel. Even some in the Republican Party seem fed up. At some point, tactics are revealing. Increasingly, they reveal a President who will bend and reshape words and actions in self-justification. “The hell with democracy,” he says to himself, “I will do what I want to do. And celebrate myself.”

In my view, he is in a competition with himself for the most loathsome actions. Favoring Russia over Ukraine. Driving prices higher with tariffs. Failing to deal with our national debt. Disparaging. Bullying. Lying. Where to start? Stop?

But he has achieved one overriding tactical success—intimidating Members of Congress. Their compliant behavior proves what a woeful bunch of wannabes occupy many of the Congressional seats.

And in my list of mythically bad actions what about taking a wrecking ball to the East Wing of the White House? Once again, the Congress proved prey as Trump got his rich collaborators to pay for the destruction and presumably the rebuild. Transactional politics at its most egregious.

Final word. The President is clear; he wants to run things. He doesn’t want the Congress or States or Courts to get in the way. He wants what judicial theorists call the “unitary presidency”—the President as corporate Chief Executive (CEO) with authority to do anything and everything.

Similarity with CEOs is absent. Perhaps the theorists willfully overlook the obvious. CEOs can be immediately fired by their Boards.

If the Supreme Court, in a pending case on tariff authority, rationalizes Presidential authority, the court will join Trump in infamy. And if Congress persists in acting like a compliant board of directors it too will join Trump and his Supreme Court in disgrace. Importantly, if the scaffolding of checks and balances are removed our building will fall down.

Right now Trump is “defining deviancy down”. Can Americans reclaim it?

Breaking News

When learning of Rob Reiner’s death, Trump verbally applauded, referring to him as a “deranged person”. Surely this won’t define deviancy down any further.

The Days Ahead

Merry Christmas! Happy Hanukkah! Especially, “Peace on Earth and Good Will to All! And, sorry for the dark lead-in.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

My Dad was a retailer in a small town in Southeast Missouri. Name: Kendall Sikes. In my youth, Dad and his brother had a store that, among other things, sold toys. In our family, Christmas was a really big deal—earthly and beyond.

Beyond the transcendent part, our Church was important. Mom, Marcia Sikes, was the organist at the Church, and I heard Christmas songs being practiced by her every day for well over a month. The melodies were layered with lyrics of love, joy, kindness—the fruit of the faith.

Back then, there were radio stations that broadcast church services on Sunday morning and then reverted to regular programming by the afternoon. During the holidays, regular programming often meant Christmas music, and quite a bit of it recalled biblical stories related musically. The song, “Mama Got Run Over by a Reindeer,” was still decades off.

My job at the store included re-shelfing. Dad knew most of the customers and if, for one reason or another, they had to return items, he accepted them and I put them back on the shelf. It was, he said, “the right thing to do.” Those little episodes of life linger.

We are now in what the Christian faith calls the Advent Season; the dawn before the sun comes up, as I think about it. The staging before the main event, the birth of a baby, the world calls Jesus.

But the main Christmas event now, for most, is a variation on Kings (wise men from the East) bringing gifts to celebrate Jesus’s birth.  Gift buying and giving are the propulsive features of the season.

And gift giving, I know from my broadcast days, results in peak advertising in the fourth quarter. A recent report found a 20% quarter-over-quarter increase in overall digital advertising in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Today a popular social media descriptive is “Influencer”. Merriam-Webster defines an influencer as: “one who exerts influence: a person who inspires or guides the actions of others.” And that is just the way people in the media business, old and new, see themselves—especially in podcasting and social media.

Media salespeople, a part of the mix, are “influence advocates”. They talk in impressions per thousand of people reached. They can tell you about repetition, specifically, how many impressions each person will hear or see. Somewhere along this line of ad creation, volume, and repetition, companies, agencies, and media prevail. Compromised on a societal level are the transcendent messages of “love, joy and kindness.”

We, the collective, are coming around. Social media is providing searing lessons. Many schools, for example, are taking cell phones away as classes begin. There is, at least I hope, a 21st Century understanding that turning kids over to various media, social and legacy alike, is harmful. While this has always been true, we are now in an age when performative outrage used to break through media noise compounds the problem.

But back to lessons and going outside the family. The Pledge of Allegiance, with its transcendent message, for example, is absent in many schools today. A 1943 Supreme Court ruling said that requiring students to recite the Pledge violated their First Amendment rights.

It is, of course, impossible for me to know what ultimate effect my Mom’s rendition of sacred holiday music had on my young mind and its lingering effects. But it was not nothing, and society’s swing to intense consumerism and, more recently, increased creative noise and profanity is also not nothing. When the prevailing culture finds God an irrelevance, the Judeo-Christian moral codes follow.

It is easy to blame parents or schools or politics for societal breakdown. Let me add to the list—not at the adornment level, but at the foundation one—when the profane transcends the sacred, trouble is the offspring.

Thank you, Mom and Dad.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

Is intuition obsolete? What about our accumulated layers of information and feelings or what we might call seasoning? Including, of course, the lessons from failures and the information-laden seams of character? Or, the fruits of relationships—the improvisational values of collaboration?

It was 1959. One of the greatest jazz pieces ever composed, “Take Five”, was performed by the Dave Brubeck Quartet. The melody was written by Paul Desmond, but the band collaborated on the final fusion of ideas and musical notes. Brubeck created the harmonic foundation and Joe Morello the famous drum pattern.

“Take Five” is both Desmond’s composition and a Brubeck Quartet creation. A collaboration for the ages.

Are the coders with their artificial intelligence (AI) tools going to upstage fertile minds? Minds shaped and reshaped by life? Can they turn the generative algorithms  into 21st-century creators without pirating previous works? Can AI models take humans out of the equation?

At the risk of mixing up input and outcomes, here are some recent experiences—the complex and simple kind. When I got my knees replaced, I offhandedly referred to the surgery as robotic chainsawing. Thank goodness for the strides in pain management. My research and subsequent experience suggest that doctors working with robotic tools are a generation or two more effective in the removal of the old and integrating the new.

But then how much do we want tools to get in the middle? For example, in a recent trip back from New York, I came face-to-face with both a person and a screen at the same service area on the New Jersey Turnpike. As required by New Jersey law, a human pumped gas and cleaned the car window while my wife had to figure out the tablet interface at a ShakeShack. Best in show: the gas attendant, not the interface,

Whether we are dealing with a medical breakthrough or ordering sandwiches, humans can be either crucial or welcome. I am afraid that when they are just welcome they will disappear. Too bad, variations on the default format go missing, and hospitality is nonexistent.

As one friend of mine often quips, “Here’s the thing.” I started with a slide rule, welcomed the electronic spreadsheet, and then the calculator, followed quickly by the computerization of most things.

Technology attracts investment. And, return on investment will require volume—a robust demand side. The capital investment in AI is without precedent and that will help to assure the ultimate flipped script. Will we flip from humanics to mechanics? If so what will be lost, a civilization?

A recent headline in the Wall Street Journal proclaimed “The College Students Who Can’t Do Elementary Math.” The underlying story verified that many students at the University of California, San Diego can’t round numbers or add fractions. If you cannot tally up numbers, trouble will follow.

Regardless, as momentum flips the script, the depth of human creativity will remain crucial to progress and humanity. But, if AI becomes a substitute for thinking, the incurious will need to muscle up.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books.