“Pictures don’t lie.” Take a look at this one. Title: AI imagines Trump and Biden as buddies. Artificial  intelligence (AI) is too intelligent to make this mistake.

At the beginning of the computer age was a pithy phrase: “Garbage in — Garbage out.” This combination of words dates to 1957 when an Army Specialist, William D. Mellin explained that computers cannot think for themselves.

But now they can. Or so we are told. But, I suspect the more immediate challenge is the artificial or manipulative side of the use of computer tools.  I can remember, close to home, a Christmas card that succumbed to the mastery of software.

Yet, each combination of years and newly minted software engineers push both the science and the tools. At times inspiration starts with sci-fi writers. Unrelenting. Unstoppable.

Mustafa Suleyman, in his book,”The Coming Wave”, went back to a triangular piece of metal we know as a stirrup.  The stirrup made more lethal warfare possible by the early 4th Century AD. It literally changed the world. Suddenly combatants could use weapons without falling off their horse. AI is now another transformative leap forward.

Everything is in one form or another information. Health care is information. Our meals begin that way — recipes. Our cars begin as information — engineering. As does news. As does clarity of mind or not.  Credulity at its best is wary—our mind’s filter is essential. The more trusting we are as voters, for example, the more we risk. Essential question: can we trust that information?

The best leaders push and push for accuracy and informed opinion. It is, in part, a tactile experience. Those who lead with insight must touch and touch again. Without it their organizations do not thrive. AI will do much of that for them as it parses databases for accuracy and converts what it finds into words and images. Maybe answers. Breakthrough products and services. And the best AI technology is constantly updating its sources while separating right steps from false ones. It sounds human; in time it will become super human.

I think of AI as a synthesis generator. While my use has been limited and I find some of the answers quite cautious rather than decisive, I am amazed at the size of the language models it searches and parses and its speed. Looking ahead from from where AI is today can be frightening. And hopeful. If we are at the beginning, where will we be when we reach the end? Well, of course, there will be no end.

Investors have rushed in. Last week articles noted the breach of a $3 Trillion ceiling of market value of Microsoft. Microsoft in 2019 bought what we know of as Chat GPT. It bought leverage — the use of AI in the 21st Century will be akin to the stirrup in the 4th.

AI will be ubiquitous.  It will not stop. Every second its scope will move forward. And if you are a knowledge worker without understanding fully AI’s importance in what you do — well, it won’t be pretty.

So yeah, we should be both worried and hopeful. Biden and Trump picnicking together—laughable. A version of 21st Century comics. But I am all in favor of getting the two-some engaged. They should be asked how they would deploy AI as a benefit. Asked whether they would issue an Executive Oder affecting its development. Asked whether, when AI is a source, attribution should be required. In short, who is behind the curtain?Shouldn’t we know?

Finally, what about regulation? Imaginative fear is an unsuitable platform for detailing regulation. Sure, we should be attentive and when plausible fear begins to take root the central government should act. The nature of artificial intelligence makes lower units of government unsuitable. In the meantime the benefit side is promising.

What happens when what you say doesn’t matter?   When outrageous assertions are overlooked or explained away as just “Trump being Trump”.

Trouble and as the Music Man noted, with a capital T!  And especially if the candidate is running to be the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the United States of America, not President. Presidents after-all have to understand and comply with constitutional checks and balances. Most CEOs are, at most, checked by distracted Boards.

Apparently that is what the base of the Trump Party desires. And the strength and intractability of that base gives its CEO the right to challenge our historic alliances, cancel our promises, accelerate our declining tradition of civility, and politicize our perseverance over corruption.

As Donald Trump negates by word and conduct these traditions—asserting power over reason—rationality bends to power. Yet history is adamant. When power dominates we will later read of its irrationality. And immorality.

The strength of political Parties and their leaders is not immune to the vagaries of power held and dissipated through arrogance. America’s weakness is finding itself in the midst of that phenomenon in both Parties. But in the most immediate sense it is in the, well I don’t know what to call the Party, but as I watch knee after knee bend to Trump as a blustering CEO it is no longer the Republican Party as history defined it. Trump, in the historical context, is the RINO (Republican In Name Only).

But, the Party of Lincoln has been largely destroyed. While the Party of Roosevelt seems to misunderstand history. As to the latter, fiscal integrity abandoned is, for our nation, suicidal. And pair that with conscious class division, demolition is underway.

The Party of Lincoln and much later Ronald Reagan has reached the end. It is now the Party of Trump and whatever he believes. It varies. And perhaps most destructively the lines of morality have been erased. He, having said his supporters will forgive him shooting someone in broad daylight on 5th Avenue, knows he is King. His supporters having reached this state of abject loyalty, have become co-conspirators. Making America Great Again is not on offer.

My experience tells me that when another can take you for granted your days of freedom are over. It might begin as a flirtation but when one-way love emerges dependence takes hold and we know the rest of the story.

Let me be particular. How can we have a healthy democracy when the loser as determined by multiple courts, exploiting emotion, refuses to accept an election loss?

How can we have a healthy democracy when the most rank assertions emerge on the campaign trail? Did Niki Haley begin her life in India; no, but her parents did. And all of us, with the exception of Native Americans, can look back and find our ancestral beginning was elsewhere.

How do we have a healthy democracy when debates turn into cage matches with harshness  suppressing ideas? We all know that when power alone defines the struggle, nasty is soon descriptive. Free markets encourage competition; brutish politics suppress it. Who, that you admire, is likely to want a political life that might end in the Oval Office?

In the case of President Biden he directed his Party to change the Primary schedule to by-pass Iowa and New Hampshire. He wanted a coronation at the outset of the political process. Campaigns require physical and mental strength and he didn’t want to be tested.

And then lurking on the fringes of the action is an organization called No Labels whose avowed purpose is to give Centrists a home but whose temporizing has revealed its lack of leadership. To begin with political parties are supposed to be aspirational. Why not the Unity Party? Or if you want two words, Unity Now or variations? No Labels? Marketing 101 tells freshman that defining your identity is important.

Finally, what does it say about us that our forefathers spelled out a structure of democracy that dispersed power and provided a court system to resolve disputes and yet in at least one Party the consolidation of power is the only discernible mission.

As I write the New Hampshire primary is coming to an end. Maybe the prognosticators will be wrong. Maybe Haley will defy expectations. I hope so; having a 50 something still in the game might encourage the Democratic Party to join in a search for new leadership.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

Nullification comes to mind.  Not the kind asserted unsuccessfully by State’s rights advocates but the kind that begins at the “grass roots” as they say. The kind of nullification that looks East from West.

Let me begin. Many Iowans turned out, almost defiantly as so many reporting the news said that severe cold would keep many in. And some stayed home. The Iowans that turned out were not January 6 “take over the government at all costs” people. They were not frothing at the mouth. Indeed CNN, one of two channels I watched, made this clear as they interviewed dutiful caucus-goers with their kids looking on.

The interviews fleshed out MAGA (Make America Great Again). Rather than a besmirched minority, it was clear that in Iowa they were regular citizens who do not like the turn America has taken. They have heard Harvard, Harvard, Harvard when worthies are being discussed and then found out its President thought calling for genocidal actions against Jews was not harassment sufficient to be a violation of the schools code of conduct.

And then what’s all this stuff about pronouns and males who want to transition to female sports? While in many respects these are arguments that do not represent majorities passing new laws the evening news from whatever source makes sure we hear over and over about the movements.

The former President, Donald J Trump, has been talking about these things. He directly or indirectly says we must turn the page; although he is short on detail. Why get into detail when your four word slogan allows people to dream about the “good old days”.

Of course there is the inevitable “but”. While President Joe Biden and Trump see-saw in the polls of the day, Trump must be unnerved by the 20 to 30% in his own party that said a felony conviction would be disabling. Right now Trump is playing his various legal problems as the Left is weaponizing the justice system. “I am your retribution” his supporters are told. Trump, an unlikely leader of a revolution, has nonetheless positioned himself to be seen that way by many in his Party and beyond.

The legal problems are both Trumps and ours. Are we done with the Courts? As an institution is our court system to be honored? As a way-out-of-practice lawyer looking at the court calendar and the political one it appears to me that the Republicans will have virtually chosen their nominee before the first jury panel is sworn in. Voir Dire, the choosing of jurors will be one for the TV cameras and history books. Can you imagine a jury of 12 persons who do not have pre-conceived notions about Trump?

But, Iowa is just one State. Yet, President Biden choose to bypass it because political professionals know it punches above its weight.

It’s now on to New Hampshire where polls show Niki Haley doing well. Ron DeSantis promises to take her on there and again in the third primary in her home state. Good luck with that. DeSantis was the big loser in Iowa as he put all of his chips down after being endorsed by it’s popular Governor.

While Biden shoved Iowa down his calendar, he is paying attention. He can’t be pleased to see Immigration as the top issue on caucus goer’s minds. Or the economy close behind with inflation top of mind. Nor can his Party stalwarts be pleased as they see Congressman Dean Phillips gain more support in the unauthorized primary in New Hampshire. And the latest poll from ABC/Ispos has Biden’s approval rating at only 33%.

While I am not a fan of incessant polling and believe it particularly discriminates against the emergence of new candidates, I know that politicians read the polls at breakfast. And the polls say that President Biden is weak even against Trump. If you could find a group of people who were neutral about today’s polarizing politics and overlayed on a mythical Republican candidate Trump’s problems, this group of neutrals would say he was fatally damaged. But, the polls say not against Biden.

It will be very difficult, if not impossible, for a national alternative to Biden to emerge without Biden stepping down. And it is hard to win nationally if you are unknown. The only candidate, in my view, who is a true alternative, is Niki Haley. She has put in the work. Even though castigated by her Republican competitors as not “tough enough” she has proven plenty tough. The “not tough enough” label sounds an awful lot like male arrogance. I have daughters, I listen.  Plus, any good leader in a democratic system must display collaborative temperament.

While Haley will undoubtedly do better in New Hampshire, is there a path in today’s Republican Party to the nomination? Not without developments not easily anticipated. She might, however, find her Party has left her and take the Independent line presumptively through the No Labels independent candidate structure.

Maybe Iowa’s results are just not very important. We are certainly at the beginning of the sorting out process. Yet, I have the feeling that Iowans on the Right have delivered some sobering messages to all Never Trumpers, regardless of which side of the divide they are on.

January might be a disagreeable weather month, but this January is going to be eventful. It is likely that a presumptive nominee of the Republican Party will be an all but certain choice. The President will either stand down or not. Vice President Kamala Harris will either remain the presumptive Vice President nominee or not. And the emergence of a third party with the resources to actually win will emerge or not. If not January, then maybe a week of two in February.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

The Golden Globe awards are in the rear view mirror with the Oscars and Grammys weeks off. They celebrate writing, acting, singing and the like—performing arts.

Many years ago I visited with Ted Danson on the set of Cheers. He played Sam Malone a washed up relief pitcher whose time in the Major Leagues was spent with the Boston Red Sox. He was the owner of a walk down bar in Boston and with poise and good humor engaged with a wide range of colorful characters.

Danson, noting my venue, Washington, and its characters, said, “We do the same thing. We are all actors; it’s just that our subjects are different”. Ronald Reagan was then President. I would note several other differences. As the award ceremonies unfold it is clear that a good show is a team effort.

Actors, whether in Hollywood or Washington, are not humble people. They have worked hard to get to the top and preen in the spotlight. But in the case of those who take the stage to act or sing or dance or whatever, they recognize that fame is fleeting and there is more skill behind the camera than in front of it. Almost all, gracious in their winning monologue, spend their seconds recognizing others.

Every four years America goes through a version of this at the election polls. A much more serious version. We then live with our choice for four years. Perhaps the most daunting challenge is looking ahead, as we know circumstances are always in motion and we can’t know as we are voting the challenges that our new leader will face.

In about a week and a half Iowa will kick off the choice of a national leader to serve four years. The overwhelming leaders out of the gate are two old men (I write as one). The prides of both miniaturize the collective pride in the performing arts.

One, Donald Trump, has a take no prisoners persona. The other, Joe Biden, has accumulated layers of ego unbeknownst to regular people. Both insist that America needs them. Both ask that, notwithstanding the certainty of age-related risk factors, that they be supported. For four more years.

An egregious element in the back story of presidential campaigns is that the media loves polls. They, of course, are not the real thing but like impending sports events they seed conversation and betting lines. They like them so much they brand the polls with their name. Most networks and the most circulated newspapers have their names on the polls.

So years and then months before the first votes are cast the New York Times and Washington Post and Wall Street Journal tell us what we are thinking. And therefore, while we are thinking about our mortgage or children or whatever, we are asked about people most of whom we have never heard of.

There is, of course, a companion problem. As my wife says, who would answer questions from a stranger in a world in which most answer the phone electronically? Fact is the pollsters now assemble panels of persons they quiz repetitively. I suspect the data value recedes with repetition. Perhaps the better test is Google Trends that reports interest in Niki Haley has surged. Days out from the beginning of voting people are now interested.

On top of the advantage the media gives to incumbents or the well known we have an extra aggressive use of leverage. President Biden used his leverage to change the order of primaries.  Not wanting to start out in Iowa or New Hampshire, he stacked the deck in favor of South Carolina where he has an especially powerful surrogate.

Trump, on the other hand, being especially well known refused debate invitations. And he called officeholders (an especially quivering contingent) and said endorse me or I will oppose you. So Republicans who had supported one or more Bush or Reagan or had been in a youth for Eisenhower organization were at risk of being ruled out of the Party (Republicans in Name Only) by a New York billionaire whose principal occupation is Self. But, I can say with certainty that NYC businessmen know leverage—not just the definition, but the practice. And given that most who hold office do not have a backup job, they yield. Public ciphers not servants.

In the meantime the commentators who populate the media with their names on the polls confuse real voting with conversations. They then disparage Trump’s supporters and his supporters then use Trump as their middle finger proxy. All the while, Biden’s operatives goad Trump supporters toward the end of Trump being Biden’s competition.

In recent years I frequently feel like a contrarian. So I would vote for Congressman Dean Phillips (protest vote) in the New Hampshire Democrat primary that won’t count. Congressman Phillips is getting a good lesson in powerlessness. And for Niki Haley in the Iowa or New Hampshire primaries that will count. Haley is an especially interesting political figure. Her Americanness is already being challenged by Trump. And, it takes a lot of skill and performing talent to rise to second place with voters who several months ago didn’t recognize her name much less her background.

So let me close with two thoughts. To the extent polls have a constructive dimension it is in the snapshots they give us on public attitudes about topical issues and politicians. Democrats who are polled do not give Vice President Kamala Harris good marks. Joe Biden, who is lugging around his own baggage, should transition as delicately as he can to a new running mate with good operational credentials. Or Harris should stand down, be widely celebrated for having done so and become the President of a University.

And to Republicans. Voters who are not hardcore Republicans do not like Donald Trump. We need a President supported by a majority; his chances of winning with a majority are nil. In that respect I believe Biden’s operatives, in pumping up Trump, are simply responding to that fact. There is a message in there for America.

Post Script

Several weeks ago I suggested that the CNN Republican Primary debate should be ducked by Niki Haley and Ron DeSantis unless CNN provided a video stand-in for Donald Trump. I anticipated a cage match and it was one. One that Haley won. Why? Her DeSantislies.Com web site which she frequently used as an elaboration point and her critique of his campaign, noting his continual declining poll numbers while burning through $150 million, were winners. But the cage match theatrics mainly served up political decay.

Free Over-the Air Broadcasting

One of the frequently repeated lines of pride during my time at the Federal Communications Commission was commenting favorably on “free over-the-air broadcasting”. The FCC had used its facilitation of a nationwide network of broadcast channels to help unify the country.

Now, and predictably, the monolith, the National Football League has decided to sell only streaming rights to the playoff game between the reigning Super Bowl winning Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins.

The FCC has no control over what the NFL does and sports, unlike news, does not carry much intangible value. But, anytime a product or service is controlled by a monopoly bad things will happen. I am a Chiefs fan but will boycott the game on Peacock, NBC’s streaming service. Hopefully enough people will boycott, sending the NFL and its complicit advertisers a clear message: “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take this anymore.”

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

Yes, that’s right, fun eclipses judgment. In short, if predicting the future was not fun few would put their reputations on the line. At this stage in my life where reputation has, for better or worse, become static I plow on. And, by the way, my thoughts cannot be shorted; there is no market. Rightly.

The Economist, as 2023 wound down, noted that economists had made a “muddle” of that year’s predictions. Many had forecast an international recession with attendant implications for stocks and bonds. And to add to the embarrassment economists actually use mathematical formulas to arrive at their analysis and conclusion. Their approach is not an intuitive game of spin-the-bottle.

So, having just spun my mythical bottle I believe 2024 will be a modest growth year in the US. Demand will slow for discretionary purchases and I wouldn’t want to own stocks of high-end consumer goods companies. Younger buyers will allocate more of their income to rent or building up capital for a down payment on a home. But, overall, America will have a rather settled economy with breakthrough technologies leading to what America does so well—entrepreneurial driven supply. The stock market will be up a bit—math is not my speciality.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) broke through our consciousness in 2023. As I type, the underlying software anticipates my words and speeds the mechanics. I use ChatGPT as a research assistant; it performs rather well. It also has good copywriting skills. But, my narratives are my narratives.

New technology always needs early adopters for demand to gather force. In one way or another there are more than enough early adopters of AI to suggest that this latest manifestation of computational magic will soon be a powerful enabling force as it enhances many offerings and undermines others. Health care will receive especially welcome boosts.

This will be a year of quantification. AI will produce results. And everybody who provides goods or services that are affected will research, build, or buy their way in and forward. The government will make noises about regulating it, but there will not be anything approaching a consensus on what to do.

However if you ask AI who will be the next president, it will decline to answer the question. That’s the reason we are prepared to call this technology intelligent. But regardless of how important politicians believe their efforts affect our economic well-being, mostly they don’t. In short, America’s strengths are substantial enough to absorb bad judgment. And to me featuring a replay of the 2016 and 2020 elections is real honest-to-God bad judgment.

But before abandoning the political field all together, I would simply note: don’t underestimate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ( RFK). He is a Kennedy and neither President Biden or Donald Trump will set the standards bar particularly high. I predict he will be the wild card in this election cycle.

I will also predict that the Democratic Party will begin to move back to the Center. The MAGA movement did not develop in a vacuum. Its success is derived from the many attacks on what Americans thought were settled values. Many of the attempts to re-engineer America coalesced into an unwelcome movement in both red and blue states. The irrationality of Harvard, Penn and MIT Presidents is illustrative and explosive. When truth becomes relative, lets say bendable, the culture fractures and wars break out.

Yes there are disparities in educational and economic outcomes. And we have spent the better part of four generations trying mightily, through programs piled on top of programs, to improve the lives of people who for whatever reason were not able to get ahead or even get started. Presumably we have learned a lot about what works and doesn’t. And that leads to a prediction.

As our tax payments increasingly flow to interest payments on the national debt, a strong and largely bi-partisan force will insist that we borrow less and prove up, by generational assessments, what will work or not. This will not be an outgrowth of a flinty resolve. We will be forced to do it. At the end of the day economic forces will push, not lag, reform.

Let me end on a lighter note. The Baltimore Ravens will win the Super Bowl. Lamar Jackson will be the MVP.

But, when it comes to baseball my crystal ball is blurry. I will predict, however, that the Los Angeles Dodgers will learn again that you cannot buy baseball’s crown. Baseball is a team game. So are our collective efforts we call government.

Happy New Year!

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

Navel gazing: yes we are at year’s end. People who write regularly, drawing attention to their work by making predictions, put the best case on their hits and misses in 2023. I am more interested in what the past tells us we need to do in the future. There was a time when past developments were the future; that time has passed.

America needs a new generation of leaders. Persons whose minds have been shaped and tested by the vast potential of breakthrough technologies. Leaders who are not pickled in an irreversible liquid of preservatives. It will take strong and insightful leadership to push beyond clever bureaucrats and congressional grandees who run interference for the embedded interests that stand in the way.

Inertia in public leadership is a fact. Its causes are many and unlocking it is complicated. How, for example, can you transition from weapons that cost hundreds of thousands or millions per copy to ones that take advantage of artificial intelligence and robotics that at scale cost relatively little? After all, we have a defense industry built on producing new generations of old weapons. They will fight hard to maintain the status quo.

I use national defense metaphorically as its outcomes are measurable. Results can’t hide. America gained early wins in Afghanistan and Iraq and then began to lose. The horrifying withdrawal from Afghanistan was telling. Low tides are revealing.

In general, how can we overcome vested interests that have shaped lawmakers and laws that protect their market advantage? A political gerontocracy lacks the energy and motivation to lead us out of those riptides. The incumbents, politicians and industrialists alike, have hired clever infighters to protect the advantages of incumbency. They do a good job often at the expense of America. What’s so wrong, the political incumbents ask: “I got elected.”

Beyond how we prevent and/or fight wars and terrorists, how do we reform medicine to deliver better outcomes with fewer costs? I wonder how much money, for example, is spent just handling government paperwork? Administrative personnel piled on top of administrative personnel. And, how many first medical contacts could be screened and potentially resolved by Telehealth as artificial intelligence tools communicating with body sensors point to necessary steps? Steps that don’t require driving to a crowded waiting room, listening for your name to be called while wondering about the person one seat away who is hacking away.

We live in a rapidly changing world. Computing capabilities and now the potential of artificial intelligence are offering new and tested ways forward. The guardians of the status quo will fight back and at our expense. And the last thing we can afford is piling new regulatory agencies on top of old ones. The FCC, my old bailiwick, was given its basic mission in 1934. Update it or fold it.

Presidents do not have to be technicians, but they must understand the world of possibilities. And they must be able to speak about them and lead collaborative bipartisan initiatives to deliver results. If America is to continue leading the world, this will not be optional.

I used to be a Republican and then changed my affiliation to Independent. Both major Parties and many of their candidates are simply not up to the task. They are a dull amber—frozen by time and emotions. As we look toward the next election the one thing we can count on is aggressive repartee on abortion, guns and real or imagined forms of discrimination. These redundancies often take up our attention span.

I am looking for competition in how we choose our leaders because I can’t imagine a moment when renewal is more important. In my view neither Party should choose a nominee who is approximately my age to be its standard-bearer. Regardless, our first and most important standard should be renewal. And renewal must be led. Renewal of civility. A renewed integrity in our fiscal affairs. And a tough-minded assessment of the causes of inertia paired with a sharp pencil and a persevering backbone. The nation’s voters intuitively know that Donald Trump will press his advantage with incivility and that President Biden will not deploy the sharp pencil.

As things stand we have a conspiracy theorist with a good family name enjoying better net favorability ratings than either Biden or Trump. Could Robert Kennedy Jr. (RFK) be the next President? Many of his conspiracy theories revolve around the origins of Covid 19 and the public seems to be unsettled on a range of questions presented by the pandemic’s origin and government commands.

Over time I have written about particular policy positions. Now, in some respects, I have a single position. I want somebody who can win with majority support and who has the talent necessary to be a real leader in a rapidly changing world. My preference: a center-right leader.

But, count on it, pickled leadership will deliver talking points screened by political operatives. In short, their angle of view will be from the rear view mirror. The media should take note of its own culpability in our stunted times and skip over the brush fires to look for the sparks—the causes. We, the electorate, can only avoid our own culpability if we are impatient with the superficial and search out the sparks of real leadership.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

Henry Wadsworth Longfellow during an especially sad time in his life expressed his emotions in a poem titled Christmas Bells. Later it was given a more contemporary life as a Christmas carol: I Heard the Bells on Christmas Day.

I recall the poet from studies long ago; his sufferings and abiding faith. Christmas, it is my guess, was foundational for Longfellow. A story of rebirth. As we might say today, an inflection point that humanity needs. Doesn’t the rebirth story, regardless of context, urge us to move — move forward?

Before going further, let me share a brief prologue to the poem. Longfellow was writing on Christmas Day, 1864. The Civil War was raging and even though Longfellow was an Abolitionist he had urged his son Charles to not enlist. Charles defied his father. His reference to the cannon’s thunderous sound being “black” and “accursed” draws on a dismal moment in his and his nation’s life.

CHRISTMAS BELLS

I heard the bells on Christmas Day
Their old, familiar carols play,
And wild and sweet
The words repeat
Of peace on earth, good-will to men!

And thought how, as the day had come,
The belfries of all Christendom
Had rolled along
The unbroken song
Of peace on earth, good-will to men!

Till ringing, singing on its way,
The world revolved from night to day,
A voice, a chime,
A chant sublime
Of peace on earth, good-will to men!

Then from each black, accursed mouth
The cannon thundered in the South,
And with the sound
The carols drowned

Today too many use the words of war and some it’s weapons. In Europe and the Middle East nations are at war. In America and other countries individuals take up weapons and motivated by hate, kill others. America’s strength is built on principles of civility in which hatred should have no purchase. “Peace on earth, good-will to men”.

So now here we are; some debating the relative importance of holidays. Many feel a need to insist that Thanksgiving is America’s most important holiday. Thanksgiving is indeed a special holiday, blending food, family and friends. But, I have no interest in debating the intangible importance of holidays.

Longfellow captured a universal yearning — “Peace on earth, good-will to men.”

Contemporarily we would say good-will to humankind.

Is the Christ child the problem? Is the fact that a religious faith results from his birth and transcendent life an unbearable burden? Or should humanity celebrate his life and morality regardless of how humans have chosen to organize around his earthly presence two millennia ago? And those who assert themselves as Christian leaders should embrace and voice the refrain: “Peace on earth, good-will to humankind”.

Thanksgiving is about friendly consumption. What about peace and good-will — it is surely a blessing. Merry Christmas to all.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

Headlines

“Shohei Ohtani, a Japanese baseball player, to receive $700 million to play for the Los Angeles Dodgers for the next 10 years.”

“Liz Magill to resign as President of the University of Pennsylvania. Claudine Gay will continue as President of Harvard.”

“American support for Ukraine is in question.”

At the risk of conjuring an impossibly difficult billiards shot, be patient with me for a paragraph or two as I associate these headlines. Each of these circumstances and decisions go way beyond baseball or university values or supporting an ally. Let’s take baseball first.

Baseball

Ohtani has raised the bar even though deferral of payment elements reduce the real value of his deal. Yet, this baseball deal is a win for the most talented players and a loss for the fans.

Bills have to be paid and therefore player expenses must be covered with revenue which means higher ticket prices, more advertising  (especially on TV) along with prices for parking, concessions, team-branded gear and anything else the ball club can get parents to buy for their star-obsessed kids. Or, themselves. In short, baseball as a national pastime has suffered. The fans should be at the negotiating table.

Speech

On the campuses of three elite universities, in particular, the testimony of their leaders that calling for genocide against the Jews does not necessarily violate the University’s code of conduct is astonishing. Does this reflect America or do the schools reveal the power of identitarian politics to overthrow morality? Yes, morality!

While the Presidents of Harvard, Penn and MIT are in the hot seat perhaps the Congress should assemble panels of Professors who lead the schools academic departments. University presidents are not trendsetters. They reflect their faculties. Group think is not punishable but should be revealed.

Today when we are really alarmed about speech or conduct we frequently talk about systemic change. Which is to say that a given episode is not a one-off, but reflective of underlying changes that pose a greater risk or reward.

Commitment

Volodymyr Zelenskyy is, I presume, back in Ukraine. And while I note on this morning’s news, that Norway has just made another commitment, it is hard to know where America and NATO stand. But I know this, if our alliance suffers a reversal of support, American foreign policy will both in fact, and by perception, have suffered a systemic change. While Ukraine has fought Russia after its invasion to at least a standstill, the bravery it has shown will shine an especially harsh light on equivocation. And while Russia might look strong at the moment, Ukraine has dealt a blow to its strength. It is too bad that the West does not have a Winston Churchill whose perseverance and eloquence turned WWII toward victory.

When aggression shocks the conscience, America has a choice.  People and its leaders can choose to support the prey or stay on the sidelines. After our disastrous pullout from Afghanistan, America as a force for good was harmed. Now America and NATOs pledges of support are in question.

To sum up. I like to think of America as special, in part, because of our allegiance to transcendent values. But when elite schools walk away from those values and our national pastime, baseball, is turned into a tax on summer fun and internationally our reputation is at serious risk I wonder where we are going.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

So I am sitting at lunch wishing I had broken the habit of catching up with the news while eating. On this particular day writers and commentators were covering the latest debate on News Nation. As I watched part of the debate it became obvious why I had never before watched anything on this channel.

The debate was, to borrow a phrase from the Wall Street Journal’s sportswriter, Jason Gay, a “fenceless rodeo”. Two of the candidates, Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis, had decided to use verbal stun guns to take out the winner of the first three rodeos, Niki Haley. And then Chris Christie, who barely made it to the rodeo grounds took on Ramaswamy calling him an assortment of words that translated mean, brainless. And so it went. It is often said that we should avoid watching Congress work unless we like sausage making. Well this was worse.

And then as I was enjoying my sandwich I read a story in the Wall Street Journal about drones being the new Air Force and that the US has few defenses to combat a drone led offensive. Quickly Hamas came to mind and then the attacks of 9/11. Israel wasn’t prepared; we on 9/11 were not prepared and it seems like post 9/11 a dozen books have been written about our on-going vulnerabilities to Non-State actors using new attack weapons. But, no questions about our unpreparedness were asked of the four candidates who want to be the leader of the free world.

Questions were asked about what should be done to secure our Southern Border. Ron DeSantis talked about shooting persons crossing illegally if they had a backpack on that might be loaded with fentanyl. Shoot first? Maybe this is the kind of thinking that necessarily follows the inability of our two political parties to work together toward solutions.

Perhaps there were questions about educational failure but I was certainly not taking notes and don’t recall any answers but then that is the problem. We have a number of very serious problems but our so-called leaders would rather fight than reach a negotiated position. And for all who think leaders who negotiate are not leaders you should apply for citizenship in Luxembourg. America’s motto: Out of Many One.  If that remains a part of America’s mission negotiation is not discretionary.

A Final Thought on Debates

Apparently CNN will be staging debates in Iowa and New Hampshire just ahead of their primaries. The first will, it is said, be at Drake University on January 10th. The article in the Intelligencer reports that eligibility requirements will be elevated likely leading to only three who will be qualified: Donald Trump, Niki Haley and Ron DeSantis.

Presumably Trump will mock the debate and decline the invitation. So here is my work-around.

CNN should develop a list of questions that allow it to put together video clips of answers by each candidate. There is a lot of video footage and hopefully the editors could use clips from a wide range of news services. Each question to the candidates should be first answered by a relevant video clip. Then each candidate on stage should be allowed time to elaborate on their earlier stated position or critique the other candidate’s position. If Trump chooses not to participate his video clip answers will nonetheless be included. Tight time limits should be enforced using a visual warning of time elapsing and when the allotted time has expired the microphone in use will be muted.

I am sure there are variations on this skeletal proposal that would improve it. But if Trump, either in person or virtually, cannot be included there should not be a debate. Creating cage match forums for his lagging competitors to beat each other up is a destructive farce.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

A friend of mine, some years ago, told me she never failed to read the daily obituaries. I presume she meant the ones written about newsworthy people. In recent days and maybe because of my age her curiosity is easier for me to understand.

In the last two weeks: Rosalynn Carter, Henry Kissinger and Sandra Day O’Connor have been featured. And my music tastes and memories cause me to look back on 2023 and recall the deaths of Tony Bennett, Jimmy Buffett, Tina Turner and Astrud Gilberto. As I looked back I also saw a brief clashing of the expected with the unexpected. This is the most vivid.

Richard Belzer died this year. He played a lead role in Law and Order, Special Victims Unit. A friend reported that his last words were “F____ you, mother f_____”. The same friend reported that he died “peacefully with family at his side.” In a sense these contrasting circumstances frame the question that is behind a lot of books with various titles, but all thematically dealing with how to die better.

My own curiosity revolves around what we can learn from death or the struggles that precede it. Yet technology pulls in the opposite direction. It has created a flourishing derivative force in our culture. Now everybody can be an author and publisher. Especially among younger cohorts many seem to take up the offer as they spend an immense amount of time following friends and otherwise on social media. Reactions are expressed in a variety of ways that follow the thumbs up or down conclusions. Every thing is here and now.

Maybe there needs to be an elementary school course in the art of understanding in the 21st century. My suggestion; put obituaries in a We Have a Lot to Learn column and electronic device provocations in the rear view mirror. In short, the twitch culture ill-serves us individually and collectively.

Aside from appreciating the musicians who died this year, I want to focus on the news-worthies  that died in the last two weeks. I did not know Henry Kissinger although we had a close mutual friend, Peter Flanigan, so I was was aware of his tendencies. Aside from his service and books, he loved to hold court and seemed magnanimous in sharing his thoughts and as importantly, listening. While he wasn’t a reluctant teacher, he seemed to enjoy a crucial habit of good teachers, listening.

I did know Rosalynn Carter although not well. I served on a commission led by President Jimmy Carter and spent some time with Mrs. Carter and her husband on several international trips. I was struck by her gracious and understated personality. And notable passion she shared with the former President on their calling of service. To be charitable many who have occupied newsworthy roles can be difficult up-close. Mrs. Carter was, I repeat, gracious.

Sandra Day O’Connor, while a Justice on the US Supreme Court, brought a delegation of Italian Parliamentarians to the Federal Communications Commission during the time I was its Chair. She remained their host through discussions and a lunch to follow. Haughty is sometimes the term used to describe women who are celebrities. Justice O’Connor was the opposite. She was engaged, congenial—a perfect host.

All of which recalls several nights ago when my wife and I watched the documentary American Symphony on Netflix. It is a documentary about Jon Batiste and his wife, the writer Suleika Jaouad. Many are familiar with Batiste, a composer and band leader, who for a number of years shared the stage with Stephen Colbert on his show. What I certainly did not know was that he married his teenage sweetheart in the middle of her fight to defeat acute myeloid leukemia an often fatal blood disease.

Batiste, whose on-stage exuberance is matched by his off-stage thoughtfulness alternates, in the documentary, between musical venues and Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center where Jaouad was receiving a bone marrow transplant. They both pulled the curtain back. Euphemism is replaced with candor. Staging with character. The emotional intensity is natural. They deliver heart-felt lessons.

While I was hesitant to include Suleika Jaouad in a column which mainly focuses on obituaries, she according to news sources, is in remission. Long live Ms. Jaouad. And long live the  legacies of the former First Lady and the first female Justice of the Supreme Court.

Death or near-death can offer clarity in a world of artifice. The living are eager to write about their self-proclaimed accomplishments while telling us how to live our lives. But death and its unyielding trajectory in all of our lives is much more informative and sometimes prophetic.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books.