Efforts to bolster Maryland’s flagging economy and ease projected budget deficits may hinge on improving the state’s transit and road systems.

But the fund that pays for roads and transit is projected to have a more than $1 billion shortfall over the next six years, and lawmakers will return to Annapolis next month facing the prospect of “enormous” deficits in other parts of the budget.

That was the challenge laid out recently at a conference of state officials and business leaders, who said efforts to grow the state’s economy may depend on improving the state’s transportation system.

“Investing in Maryland’s transportation network will make the state more attractive to business,” said David Smith, head of government affairs for Martin Marietta, during the symposium last month held by the Maryland Chamber of Commerce.

A debate about tax increases that began earlier this year is sure to resume when the General Assembly convenes in January. Gov. Wes Moore (D) and Senate President Bill Ferguson (D-Baltimore) have so far rejected broad-based tax increases, favoring a focus on growing the state’s economy.

But the state’s economy is stagnant. The operating and Transportation Trust Funds are in the red.

Smith pointed to a July CNBC ranking of top states for business, in which Maryland ranked 31st overall and 37th for infrastructure. By comparison, Virginia ranked first overall and third for infrastructure. Pennsylvania ranked 17th overall and 20th for infrastructure.

Del. Marc Korman (D-Montgomery), chair of the House Environment and Transportation Committee, said employers “want to be near transportation that works.” But even the systems already in place in the state are struggling.

“A great example is the Light Rail system in Baltimore City, which is being held together by MacGyver with duct tape and chewing gum,” Korman said. “It could be a really great transit option for lots of businesses, if you get it working and get better service again. So, if we can create those opportunities around the state, we’re in a great position.”

Maryland faces an “enormous” projected operating budget deficit. Recent estimates predict the gap between revenue and spending will be $2.6 billion in the coming fiscal year, and approach $6 billion by fiscal 2030.

“Budget deficits are an inherent reality of government,” Lt. Gov. Aruna Miller (D), told attendees of the half-day conference. “Make no mistake on that. In fact, 18 of the past 21 state budgets had built-in deficits, underscoring the balance between making critical investments and maintaining fiscal responsibility.”

Much of the gap, especially in the out years of the Department of Legislative Services projections, is driven by higher costs of the education reforms in the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future.

Coupled with the operating budget gap is another, more than $1 billion, gap over six years for transportation projects.

Any solution for transportation funding would have to come with solutions for paying for the costs of the Blueprint, according to Korman.

“I know, at least speaking for my colleagues in the House of Delegates, if I can be so bold, that is a big issue,” Korman said. “We are not interested in solving one very important part of our economy, which is transportation, but not another, which is education. And so, these things all have to be done together.”

A derailed TRAIN

Earlier this year, when the House and Senate clashed over tax plans, the House wanted to abolish the Transportation Revenue and Infrastructure Needs Commission —  the TRAIN Commission — before the panel handed over a menu of options to modernize the Transportation Trust Fund.

Instead, the two chambers dissolved the original 31-member panel and reconstituted it as two panels: A smaller commission that would author a final report by January and a second, larger panel composed mostly of advocates, to advise the commission.

Lawmakers called on the panel to deliver a final report before the 2025 session, but that’s unlikely to happen. Members of the two new panels have not been announced. The groups have yet to meet, and the window for meeting is closing as the holidays approach.

Frank Principe, chair of the original commission, said solutions will require the governor and legislative leaders to reach some consensus on options.

“I think that the low-hanging fruit is pretty limited,” Principe told the chamber audience. “The bigger changes and needs for resources that we’re going to need to get to where we want to be requires us to make bigger and bolder steps. And I think that’s just political will to do that.

“The TRAIN Commission is more than happy to create menus of options and opportunities for conversations around what we need and what could potentially bring the resources that the department needs to be able to move on projects that we all agree need to happen,” he said. “But that really starts at the top. Without that direction, it’s going to be hard for us to get us where we need to be.”

Miller and others are looking to Principe’s panel for options.

“Currently, yes, we do have a funding shortfall that is driven in part by many different factors, including the less-than-expected revenue for the state gas tax, reduced federal funding and an end to the federal COVID-19 aid and increased construction costs,” Miller said. She said the TRAIN Commission, is making recommendations to stabilize funding.

Modernizing the Transportation Trust Fund will likely rely on several options working in concert with each other, according to Cinzia Cirrillo, director of the Center for Multimodal Mobility at the University of Maryland.

“So, there are ways that have been adopted to supplement the revenue for transportation,” Cirrillo said. “And as I tell my students all the time, in transportation, one solution is not going to work. It’s a bundle of solutions that will help raise the money that we need in transportation. And unfortunately, for transportation projects, you need a lot of money.”

Principe said there are “more choices to be made than resources that are available,” when it comes to a menu of funding options.”So, at the end of the day, we’re going to have to figure that out.”

Regional authority, local responsibility

There is plenty to figure out.

“I think that the key question is, do we want to stick with our current statewide model, or do we want to shift to regionalization?” Korman said. “I think that’s a pretty big conversation.”

But Korman said regionalization comes with a different cost for local governments.

“I think realistically, if the state was going to hand the counties additional authority, it would probably hand them additional responsibilities,” Korman said, adding that state officials would “not just give away taxing power without asking them to take on obligations.”

Other solutions could include regionalized taxes based on proximity to transit systems in the area, according to Korman.

Another possibility that is fraught with potential problems is a tax based on miles traveled — a vehicle miles traveled tax. Four states are currently piloting such programs.

Currently, the majority of transit and road projects around the state are paid for through the Transportation Trust Fund, a dedicated account funded by various registration fees and taxes, with most of its funding coming from the state’s motor fuel tax.

The state started 2024 with a proposed six-year plan that cost $3.1 billion more than the fund could support. Transportation Secretary Paul Wiedefeld later revised that projection to a smaller — but still sizable — $1.3 billion over the six years.

“There’s these tremendous pressures on the state’s revenue sources,” Wiedefeld said. “I think there’s a much greater understanding of that.”

The lack of money means projects requested by the state’s 24 political subdivisions could be delayed or even paused indefinitely.

“The problem we have is whether you’re like me and want to see three Purple lines, or like some of the other folks here and want to see three new Beltways, American Legion Bridge improvement with the Red Line … or a new Bay Bridge — whatever it is you want to see, we don’t have enough money for any of it. That’s obviously the challenge before us,” Korman said.

By Bryan P. Sears

– Maryland Matters reporter Bryan P. Sears was an uncompensated moderator of a panel during the Maryland Chamber of Commerce transportation symposium.

Oyster harvesting in Maryland’s Chesapeake waters on public bottom opened for the 2024-2025 season on Oct. 1. Hand tongers got the first crack at this year’s crop of market-size oysters since the season for power dredging doesn’t open each year until Nov. 1. The open season continues until March 31, 2025.

There’s nervousness on the water because the new season opens against the backdrop of two wildly different past two seasons.

According to state statistics gathered from oyster buyers up and down the Bay, Maryland’s watermen harvested and sold 722,850 bushels of oysters during the 2022-2023 season with an estimated dockside value of $31,241,577. The following 2023-2024 season’s numbers showed a harvest of 437,536 bushels with a dockside value of $15,528,786, a dramatic decrease.

Curiously, despite a large increase in the number of individuals reporting catches in the 2023-2024 season compared to the season before – 649 vs. 415 – the results in bushels harvested and their dockside value were much lower. It turns out that the high harvest and sales in the 2022-2023 season, that drew so many more individuals into the harvesting the following year, was an outlier.

Relative to the recorded harvests over the past 25 years, the 2022-2023 harvest represented a huge spike. A radically fluctuating market appears to be the dominant factor.

The decline the following year didn’t occur because the volume of oysters in the Chesapeake went down. Strong spat sets over the past few years have resulted in expanding oyster populations. Rather, problems in Gulf of Mexico oyster populations that led to harvesting moratoriums led to greater demand for Chesapeake oysters in that strong 2022-2023 season.

With the Gulf oyster industry back online during the season just past, demand for Chesapeake oysters along the East Coast declined, especially after the typically strong holiday season. In January, February and March there were many weeks when buyers only had a market two or three days.  Instead of harvesting five days a week as permitted by law, watermen had to stay home when there weren’t market days.

Jeff Harrison, a waterman and president of the Talbot Waterman Association, said things weren’t so great for Maryland oystermen last year and he expects the same for this new season. “We’re getting $35 per bushel this year.  That’s the same as we got 25 years ago. It might go a little higher before Christmas but not much.  The biggest thing is the market. It’s not what it was and we’re not sure why.  There’s lots of oysters out there.  The spat set in Broad Creek is amazing again this year, possibly because of the sanctuaries where the state’s putting oysters and prohibiting harvesting. And it’s not the quality of the oysters. The quality is as good as I’ve ever seen. It’s a good time to be eating oysters. I think the shuckers are getting two to three pints of oysters more per bushel than they were last year, but we’re still only getting $35 per bushel.”

Harrison said this year’s crab market was also soft.  “Everything hit great around the Memorial Day holiday.  Best ever. We were getting $200 per bushel and there were plenty of crabs around. Making good money.”

But then, he said, the market softened through the summer.  “The crab volume went down when they spread out from the creeks. We weren’t catching as many and the price also started going down.  By the fall, when the crabs are the fattest and the best, the price at the dock for us had dropped to $70 per bushel for number ones.  It’s been a long time since we got that little. Better product and less dollars, for the oysters and the crabs. It doesn’t make any sense.

 “Apparently, the same thing’s going up and down the coast,” he said. “Lobstermen and shrimpers are saying they’re not getting any real money either.  And 85 percent of our seafood still comes from overseas. Why don’t people want to buy local seafood and pay for it?  Maybe it’s the economy. I don’t know. But something’s going on.”

Chris Judy, director of Maryland’s Shellfish Division, tried to inject a dose of reality into the situation with a touch of the positive. “From what we hear, this season’s catch is down, but note that even if it ends up at about 400,000 bushels (compared to the earlier 722K or 437K) this is still a strong harvest compared to the trend of the prior decades.”

Watermen harvest oysters by hand tonging, dredging under sail and power on skipjacks, diving and hand picking from the bottom, and using hydraulic-powered patent tongs for working deeper water bars. Dredging the bottom under power with typical workboats has become the most popular and efficient method.

Dennis Forney has been a publisher, journalist, and columnist on the Delmarva Peninsula since 1972. He writes from his home on Grace Creek in Bozman.

State lawmakers will return to Annapolis in January facing a widening structural budget gap that analysts said is on track to become one of the worst fiscal situations in two decades.

One-time fixes including tapping available cash in the Rainy Day Fund could ease the pain, lawmakers were told Tuesday, but doing so could leave the state at risk for an array of other concerns, including a recession.

“The overarching takeaway from today’s meeting is that there’s an enormous gap between the ongoing spending commitments the state has made and ongoing revenues,” said David Romans, a Department of Legislative Services budget analyst, in a presentation for legislative fiscal leaders, including members of the Joint Spending Affordability Committee.

Romans said that in just five years, the state will face “a significant challenge” in paying for those commitments.

“By fiscal 2030 — the final year of our forecast — we are showing the state will only have enough revenue to cover 84% of the expenses we’re projecting the state to incur,” Romans said. “That is the largest gap that we have seen in the last 20 years. It is more significant than the Great Recession.”

In fiscal years 2008 and 2009, during a deep recession, budget projections said the state was on track to have only enough revenue to cover 89% and 87% of its ongoing spending, according to the Department of Legislative Services.

Maryland faces more than $1 billion in combined structural and cash deficits in the current year. That gap more than doubles to $2.7 billion in fiscal 2026 and 2027.

By fiscal 2028, the state will exhaust the money set aside to cover the costs of education reforms, and will require money from the general fund. The structural deficit grows to nearly $4.7 billion in 2028, then $5.2 billion a year later, and again to $5.9 billion in fiscal 2030.

Senate Minority Leader Stephen S. Hershey (R-Upper Shore) called the outlook “pretty dismal.”

“A $2.7 billion deficit is not something that, unfortunately, … you can just make up with cuts,” Hershey said. “I hope that you can, but that’s a pretty big gap. It makes it very concerning that the governor and General Assembly are going to have to raise taxes. I’m hoping that’s not going to be the case, but I’m not sure how they can close that gap.”

Tuesday’s briefing was a stark reminder of budget pressures facing Gov. Wes Moore and a legislature controlled by Democrats.

An impasse between the House and Senate earlier this year led to a budget compromise that failed to fully address concerns. House leaders wanted a $1.3 billion tax and gaming proposal, while Senate leaders opposed broad-based taxes in favor of targeted increases. The result was a projected $1 billion structural deficit — the difference between expected spending and revenues — for fiscal 2026 .

By July, those budget concerns were growing.

Moore proposed $150 million in budget adjustments this summer that were billed as cuts, but in reality reduced spending in several state agencies that was then shifted to cover costs of growing Medicaid enrollment and the state’s child care subsidy program.

Multiple legislative sources said in July that Medicare spending alone could add $800 million to the projected deficits.

Moore and Senate President Bill Ferguson (D-Baltimore) said this summer that they had a “high bar” for any tax increase. Moore also warned county officials in August of the likelihood of tough budget decisions.

It comes as recent polling shows Marylanders are still feeling pinched economically. The issue was top of mind for many voters in Maryland and nationally during last week’s election.

A spokesman for Ferguson said the Senate leader would have a comment on the fiscal briefing soon.

A stagnant economy

Over the next five years, ongoing expenses in the state budget are projected to grow at 6% annually, while revenues are projected to grow at around half that amount, legislative analysts said Tuesday.

Maryland’s economy remains stagnant: The Board of Revenue Estimates said in September, in a first look at expected revenues for fiscal 2026, that taxes and other funds flowing to the state would grow by 0.9% over the current fiscal year.

“We have not seen a lot of employment growth,” Romans told lawmakers. “We do have very low unemployment, but we’re just not seeing much employment growth, and that’s suppressing our revenues a little bit.”

Coming state budgets will have to absorb billions in additional costs for education reforms in the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future. The state also faces higher-than-expected costs for Medicaid, driven by inflation and increased enrollment, and greater demand for the state’s childcare subsidy program.

“So, all those additional spending pressures are leading to spending growing much faster than the revenues,” Romans said.

“Significant long-term solutions” needed

Moore and lawmakers could draw down on the state’s Rainy Day Fund. At $2.5 billion, the cash in the account is twice the statutory requirement of 5% of annual revenues. Taking half the fund would cover the gap projected for the current year and a portion of fiscal 2026.

The state could also suspend a requirement to set aside hundreds of millions to hedge against revenue volatility, and it could shift $250 million in cash to the deficit and opt to borrow money to pay for the already approved capital projects.

“If you did those three things, you can get through fiscal ’25 without any really difficult decisions, and you solve roughly half the fiscal ’26 problem,” Romans said.

Those moves are not without risk, however.

First, Romans said Moore and lawmakers still face “an enormous problem in ’26 and it grows dramatically by (fiscal) ’28.” That problem likely will require “significant long-term solutions.”

Those include cuts to spending or increased taxes or both.

“You’re not going to be able to just use the cash resources the state has to manage our way out of the problem,” Romans said.

“This budget problem is not being driven by a recession,” he said. “It’s being driven by a somewhat stagnant economy and by our spending ambitions.

Advocates renew push for $1.6 billion tax plan

The cash options are a one-time fix.

“So, if you use the Rainy Day Fund and you get rid of the revenue volatility, you’re eliminating two of the things that you sort of can rely on during recession to help mitigate the impacts of a recession,” Romans warned.

“I would be cautious in using these strategies without having a longer-term plan to solve the budget problem, because if we were to fall into a recession in the next few years, you would have very few options left to deal with it, other than making substantial cuts.” he said.

Advocates for a broad-based tax package proposed earlier this year seized on the briefing to renew calls for their plan.

“Now is the time to fix our tax system and ensure we have the revenue we need to fund the education, health, and public safety programs that make our communities stronger,” Fair Share Maryland, a coalition of 40 organizations, said in a statement Tuesday. “The Fair Share Maryland plan reforms the state’s upside-down tax system that currently gives unfair tax breaks to large corporations and the ultra-rich.”

Advocates said the plan, as introduced in January, cobbled together a number of proposals from earlier, failed legislation. The largest revenue source — $576 million a year — would come from closing what advocates called “corporate tax loopholes.” That includes counting corporations and their subsidiaries as one entity for tax purposes, preventing corporations from moving profits from one state to another state or country with a lower tax rate.

“Maryland leaves hundreds of millions of dollars on the table each year it fails to close corporate tax loopholes,” the group said. “Our state policies also allow the wealthiest 1% of households in Maryland to pay a smaller share of their income in taxes than anyone else. This puts the burden for public services on working families and our small businesses.”

The bill also included an increase in taxes for residents earning $1 million or more annually, as well as a 1% surcharge on capital gains.

“We can build a durable and resilient economy by righting our state’s tax code,” the group said. “Maryland can also raise $1.6 billion in revenue each year to support good schools, health care, transportation, and the state workforce needed to deliver high-quality services. Doing so will also cut taxes for more than 1 million Marylanders with a family income of $65,000 or less.”

But the deficits projected 10 months ago were smaller. It is unclear how much the Fair Share plan would cut into the current projections.

Possible Trump effect looms

None of the projections outlined Tuesday included potential changes as the result of the 2024 presidential election.

President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to purge federal employees and move federal agencies outside the Washington, D.C.,  region. Montgomery County Executive Marc Elrich said last week that he ordered a review of potential impacts to the county budget, but predicted there would also be consequences for the state.

There are also concerns about funding for the replacement of the Francis Scott Key Bridge and the relocation of the FBI headquarters to Prince George’s County.

One proposed project important to Moore – the Red Line rail system — was not mentioned. But Hershey said he does not believe the Trump administration will ever fund the east-west transit line.

“I think honestly, with the Trump administration coming in, essentially, for all intent purposes, the Red Line is dead,” Hershey said. “We’re not going to see federal funding for that.”

Maryland receives about $19 billion annually in federal aid. That’s in addition to the 256,000 residents – about 8% of all state taxpayers — who received some form of federal wages or pension payments in 2021, according to the Comptroller’s Office.

The economy could also take a hit if Trump follows through with other proposals, including mass deportations and tariffs that analysts worry could trigger inflation and recession.

“We don’t have any real way to model what they might propose to do, and a lot of those sort of things will require congressional action, so we’ll certainly be monitoring that,” Romans said. “There’s certainly a significant risk to our economy.”

By Bryan P. Sears

Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks appeared to be on her way to a historic Senate win Tuesday, with early returns giving her a comfortable lead over Larry Hogan, the popular former governor.

With 92% of the 1,958 precincts reporting at 11:20 p.m., Alsobrooks, a Democrat, had 1.2 million votes to 1.1 million for Hogan, a Republican, a 52% to 46% lead. Libertarian Mike Scott had 59,395 votes for 2% of the early total.

The vote capped a hard-fought, and occasionally bitter, race in which Alsobrooks looked to make history by becoming the first Black woman from Maryland — and one of a handful in U.S. history — to be elected to the Senate, while Hogan looked to recapture the magic that let the Republican be elected governor twice in a heavily Democratic state.

They were running to replace Sen. Ben Cardin (D), who sought not to seek reelection after 58 years in elected office. The apparent victory would make Alsobrooks the first woman senator from Maryland since Democratic Sen. Barbara Mikulksi, who stepped down in 2017; Hogan was seeking to become the first GOP senator from the state since Sen. Charles “Mac” Mathias left in 1987.

During a 20-minute victory speech before several hundred supporters at The Hotel at the University of Maryland in College Park, Alsobrooks said Marylanders proved to be “absolutely amazing people” during her campaigning across the state.

“From the bottom of my heart, I thank each and every Marylander. To serve this state, my hometown [of Prince George’s County] is the honor of a lifetime,” she said. “I had the great honor of traveling all across this state to meet Marylanders where they love, where they worship, where they build businesses, where they educate their children and where they dream of a better day.”

Alsobrooks also pledged to work with Marylanders who didn’t vote for her or who didn’t vote.

“I will never stop working to prove that public service, that the work we do, can and must change the lives of people for the better,” she told her supporters.

The enthusiastic crowd, some sporting black-and-lime-green Alsobrooks for Senate T-shirts, cheered, clapped and yelled her name throughout the speech. Many were like Wanda Durant, a community activist in Prince George’s and the mother of NBA superstar Kevin Durant.

“It is an exciting opportunity for the state of Maryland to have a Black woman, in particular, Angela Alsobrooks. She is intelligent. She is a person who is a lover of the people. She does not see her own interest,” Durant said a few minutes after Alsobrooks’ speech. “She has proven time and time again that Maryland does matter to her.”

Hogan supporters gathered in Annapolis clinging to hope that the state’s two-term Republican governor — an acknowledged underdog in the Senate race — could pull off an improbable win. Delays in releasing initial  early and mail-in voting tallies briefly kept that hope alive, but by 9:30 p.m., the race was called for Alsobrooks.

“Tonight did not bring the outcome we had hoped for,” Hogan told the crowd, before striking a conciliatory tone.

“In our nation’s history, only three African American women have ever served in the United States Senate. Tonight, regardless of who you voted for, we can all take pride in the election of the first Black woman to represent Maryland,” Hogan said. “Now is the time for us to come together and to move forward as one state and one nation, to respect the will of the voters and the outcome of the democratic process.”

He called on supporters to work together with Democrats to fix a broken political system, and to hear “the voices of the exhausted majority” rather than defer to “the demands of the loudest and angriest few who seem hell-bent on tearing America apart.”

“From day one, this was the only campaign in America that reached out to Republicans, Democrats and independents alike, because that’s what it’s going to take to solve the serious problems we face,” he said, echoing a theme of his campaign.

“We need to stop dismissing or even hating those we disagree with. We have got to find a way to listen and to believe in each other once again, because there really is far more that unites us,” Hogan said.

The race attracted tens of millions of dollars in outside campaign funding, unusual for Maryland where Republicans are typically given little chance in statewide races. But Hogan’s history of being elected statewide, and leaving office in 2022 with high popularity ratings, put the state in play.

The themes were set early in the race and repeated often, with partisanship being a key Alsobrooks’ campaign attack line against Hogan, who was recruited at the last minute by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to enter the Senate race. Democrats currently hold a one-seat edge in the Senate but are likely to lose control of the chamber in this fall’s elections, a point hammered by Alsobrooks.

Democrats also made abortion rights a central element of their campaign at a time when states — including Maryland — are struggling with abortion rights and restrictions after the Supreme Court in 2022 overturned Roe v. Wade, the nearly 50-year-old case that recognized a right to an abortion. Alsobrooks campaign pointed to Hogan’s history of abortion opposition and his veto of some abortion-rights legislation as governor, and they tried to tie him to former President Donald Trump, who has boasted about appointing three of the six Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe.

The Maryland Democratic Party flooded email inboxes almost daily with two main messages: A vote for Hogan means Republicans control the Senate, which could lead to “extreme” policies, such as a push on a national abortion ban.

That message gave pause to voters like Naekasah Johnson of Prince George’s County, a first-grade math and science teacher who said Tuesday that she voted for Alsobrooks because she was worried about Republican control of the Senate. “Sometimes he [Hogan] could say one thing and then could possibly do something else,” Johnson said.

Hogan pushed back forcefully, against both the abortion rights charges and the claims that he would be a partisan in the Senate.

He said during the one-and-only televised debate with Alsobrooks last month that he would support codifying the protections of Roe v. Wade nationwide, despite being personally anti-abortion. He accused Democrats of mispresenting his record.

Even though he ran as a Republican, Hogan also insisted that he would be in independent voice in the Senate, able to work across party lines as he said he did as governor. Hogan, long a critic of Trump, tried to distance himself from the former president, whom he briefly considered challenging for the presidential nomination in 2020.

In a phone call with reporters Tuesday afternoon, campaign aides complained about what they called false and misleading advertising directed at Hogan, as well as “really dishonest ads” they said misrepresented Hogan’s position on abortion.

“We’re still optimistic and we think that this is going to be a very close race and a long night,” said David Weinman, Hogan’s campaign manager, said Tuesday afternoon.

About $27 million came into the campaign in support of Hogan from Maryland’s Future PAC, with at least $11 million spent mostly on TV and radio ads and mailers that attacked Alsobrooks.

The ads highlighted Alsobrooks’ failure to pay all the property taxes on homes she owned, one of which she rented even though it was listed as her primary residence at the time. Alsobrooks chalked it up to simple mistakes in filing her taxes, and quickly worked with officials in the District of Columbia and Prince George’s County to pay the back taxes.

Democrats responded with a series of attacks on Hogan for land deals the state made while he was governor that benefited his real estate company — deals Hogan and supporters insisted were proper and vetted by state ethics officials.

Hogan also questioned Alsobrooks’ effectiveness as Prince George’s County executive and, before that, as the state’s attorney, claiming crime rose under her watch. But it’s unclear how much impact those charges had.

Pollsters suggested that Hogan’s previous magic touch, that allowed him to attract large shares of Democratic and independent voters, was not enough to overcome Maryland voters’ dislike for Trump, who was beaten soundly in unofficial Maryland returns Tuesday by Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee.

Hogan’s campaign predicted — consistent with that early polling — that he would attract more votes overall than the top of the Republican ticket in Maryland, but that the popular Republican former governor still faced an uphill battle in a “presidential election year in a state not inclined to vote Republican.”

The election puts Alsobrooks on track to become the first Black woman elected to the Senate from Maryland, and the first woman since Mikulski, who was the first woman to hold the office from Maryland.

Former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) stuck relentlessly to their messages Thursday during what is likely to be the lone televised debate of the Maryland Senate election — and each frequently accused the other of misrepresenting their records.

The debate, taped in the afternoon at the studios of Maryland Public Television, was scheduled to air on several area TV stations and other media outlets Thursday evening.

The hourlong telecast perfectly framed the state of the race and the candidates’ desire to define it. Hogan insisted that he can be the same kind of independent operator and seeker of political common ground on Capitol Hill that he was as governor, a posture that produced record high approval ratings for most of his eight-year tenure in a very Democratic state.

“We’re going to hear a lot about Democrat vs. Republican, red vs. blue. All I really care about is the red, white and blue,” he said. “Sending more partisans to Washington is not going to help.”

Hogan said he is running to replace retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D) because he wants to end partisan divisiveness in Washington, D.C., and added: “I’m trying to put people over politics and country over party.”

But Alsobrooks frequently asserted that in a narrowly divided Senate, with most Republicans in thrall to former President Donald Trump, party labels should matter to Maryland voters, regardless of what they might think about Hogan and his time as governor.

Alsobrooks regularly name-checked Trump, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), and other Republican senators like Lindsey Graham (S.C.), Ted Cruz (Texas) and Rick Scott (Fla.). She said that if Hogan was so intent on distancing himself from the GOP, he should have run for Senate as an independent.

“He gladly put on the [Republican] jersey,” she said. “When Mitch McConnell called him [to run for Senate], he gladly got into the game.”

Alsobrooks also faulted Hogan for writing in candidates in the past two White House elections and saying he planned to again this year.

On issues ranging from foreign policy to the federal workforce to the future of the U.S. Supreme Court, Alsobrooks sought to define Hogan by the national Republican agenda and the consequences of turning the Senate over to the GOP. But nowhere did she try to delineate the differences between her and Hogan — and his fellow Republicans — more forcefully than on the issue of abortion.

Throughout most of his political career, Hogan has described himself as personally pro-life. But shortly after he entered the Senate race this year, he began identifying as “pro-choice,” and pledged to support legislation restoring the abortion rights protections that were in place under Roe v. Wade, before the Supreme Court overturned that ruling with its Dobbs decision in 2022.

Alsobrooks suggested early in the debate that Hogan’s personal pledges are irrelevant.

“If the Republicans have the majority in the Senate, there will be no vote on Roe,” she said. “He will empower a caucus” that is determined to impose further abortion restrictions.

Hogan replied that he would attempt to sway Republican colleagues on the abortion issue and others.

“Sometimes one voice standing up can really make a difference,” he said.

Alsobrooks also hit Hogan for vetoing legislation in 2022 to expand the number of medical professionals who can perform abortions — Democrats in the legislature overrode the veto — and for delaying state funding for a corresponding training program after the bill became law.

“There’s no way to make that up,” she said to reporters after the debate. “He withheld funding for abortion care legislation. It’s an undisputed fact.”

Hogan said he vetoed the measure because it allows “non-licensed professionals” such as midwives to perform the procedure.

“A lot of people in the medical community agreed with me,” he said.

Hogan said that in attacking his record on abortion, Alsobrooks was saying “multiple things that are not true.”

“For you to lie about something as important as this issue is insulting,” he said.

With a ballot question to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution favored by 69% of Maryland voters, according to a recent poll, Alsobrooks and her supporters believe reproductive rights is a winning issue for her, and they have raised the issue continually throughout the campaign. But Hogan tried to parry the attacks Thursday, arguing that Alsobrooks’ attempts to tie him to anti-abortion Republicans amounted to the kind of blind partisanship that voters disdain.

“We’re going to hear a lot about this talk all night, because that’s the way they talk in Washington,” he said.

Alsobrooks described the Supreme Court as “awful” and said she would support attempts to reform the court, through term limits, an expansion in the number of justices, and ethics reforms.

“They no longer support the will of the people,” she said.

Alsobrooks also dredged up quotes Hogan made praising Supreme Court justices, which she said came after the Dobbs decision. But Hogan said he was referring specifically to a high court decision on funding for Jewish schools.

Hogan lamented that Supreme Court nominees rarely get bipartisan support anymore, and contrasted that reality at the federal level to his own success appointing judges in the state — including six of the seven current judges of the state Supreme Court (then known as the Maryland Court of Appeals), who were confirmed unanimously. Hogan has said that if he’s elected to the Senate, he will only support nominees from the White House who are able to win bipartisan support.

“If there’s one thing we should not be politicizing, it’s the Supreme Court,” he said.

Asked by NBC’s Chuck Todd, who served as debate moderator, whether he would have supported Trump’s three nominees to the Supreme Court, Hogan replied, “I wasn’t there and I don’t know how I would vote.”

Foreign policy

Foreign policy played a small but significant part of the candidate debate. One of the panelists, Deborah Weiner, an anchor on WBAL-TV, noted that Cardin is a strong supporter of Israel, while U.S. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D) has been critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, calling for an immediate cease fire in Gaza and return of all the hostages being held by Hamas. She asked Alsobrooks whether she’d be more like Cardin or Van Hollen if elected.

“I’m neither, I’m Angela Alsobrooks,” she said, adding, “We have an obligation to get those hostages home and work on negotiations that will lead to a cease fire.”

Hogan called himself a strong supporter of Israel and criticized Alsobrooks for embracing support from Van Hollen, who he called “probably the most anti-Israel member of the United States Senate.”

Alsobrooks hit back: “Sen. Cardin, who is supporting me, says he is ashamed of the way Gov. Hogan is politicizing this issue.”

Asked whether they would support sending U.S. troops to Taiwan as that country fends off aggression from China, Alsobrooks said no. Hogan replied, “Hopefully, it won’t come to that.” Hogan said he decided to run for Senate after congressional Republicans “tanked” a deal that would have provided extra aide to Taiwan, Ukraine and stronger security measures at the U.S. border.

Alsobrooks again sought to link Hogan to the national GOP on foreign affairs.

“The problem the governor is going to have is his party doesn’t believe in these alliances” that the U.S. has traditionally had with other foreign governments.

The personal troubles

During the debate, Alsobrooks was asked by WRC-TV reporter Tracee Wilkins about reports that she improperly claimed tax credits on two properties she owned, one in Prince George’s County, the other in Washington. Alsobrooks said the mistake was inadvertent and that she was scrambling to make amends.

“I always pay my taxes — always,” she said.

After the debate, she told reporters that she had already paid back the principal she owed for improperly claiming the tax breaks and was working to repay the interest.

Asked why the revelation about Alsobrooks should matter to voters, Hogan conceded, “I’m not sure it should matter to voters.”

While his campaign has only made occasional references to the Alsobrooks tax flap since it was first reported by CNN, a super PAC called Maryland’s Future, which supports Hogan, has already spent millions of dollars attacking Alsobrooks over the matter with TV and radio ads.

Neither candidate was asked Thursday about a new report in Time magazine that said the Maryland Board of Public Works, which Hogan presided over as governor, on several occasions awarded lucrative state housing contracts to clients of Hogan’s real estate firm. The report said that almost 40% of all competitive affordable housing contracts granted during Hogan’s tenure went to companies represented by his firm, which his brother took over when Hogan became governor.

Democrats seized on the report, suggesting that Hogan, at a minimum, had violated state ethics laws by not disclosing the conflict of interest or recusing himself during these Board of Public Works votes.

“All of this creates many questions, questions that Gov. Hogan needs to answer,” former state Attorney General Brian Frosh (D) said on a call Thursday organized by the Maryland Democratic Party.

Speaking to reporters after the debate, Hogan dismissed the Time article as “completely false.”

“I just saw it as I was walking into the debate,” he said. “This is what’s called an October surprise.”

By Josh Kurtz and William J. Ford

Spy readers are encouraged to participate in one of several unscientific survey questions as the Mid-Shore prepares for Election Day 2024 this November. First up, tell us who you would vote for in the highly competitive Senate race between former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan and current County Executive of Prince George’s County Angela Alsobrook.

Click HERE to take the survey.

Last night, the Avalon Foundation and the Talbot Spy co-hosted a Town Hall meeting for four of the six candidates running for the Talbot County Board of Education.

Spy Columnist Craig Fuller served as moderator and engaged the candidates in a series of questions about public education in Talbot County. We encourage our readers to watch the evening’s program.

The Avalon has created a helpful voter guide for residents to help determine their district and candidates. Watch below.

This video is approximately 120 minutes in length.

The Avalon Foundation and the Talbot Spy have announced that the two organizations will collaborate once again on a community Town Hall meeting, this time for candidates running for the Talbot County Board of Education. The meeting will be held Tonight, October 2, at 6 p.m. at the Avalon main theatre to discuss the educational issues facing our community.

Spy Columnist Craig Fuller has agreed to host the evening’s program. Mr. Fuller has lived in Talbot County for the last seven years. Before his arrival, he served four years in the White House as assistant to President Reagan for Cabinet Affairs, followed by four years as chief of staff to Vice President George H.W. Bush. He later was the CEO of public affairs firms and associations in Washington, D.C., before his retirement.

The program is anticipated to last 120 minutes. It will be live-streamed on the Mid-Shore Community Television YouTube channel and the Avalon Facebook page. Attendance at the Avalon will be on a first-come basis, and there will be no charge for admission. Donations, however, are welcome to support the cost of this event and future community programming.

The Avalon has created a helpful voter guide for residents to help determine their district and candidates. Watch below.