Larry Hogan Is Back in the Political Arena; What’s Next by David Reel

Larry Hogan’s recently announced U.S. Senate campaign is off to a good start.

Shortly after his announcement, a survey conducted by Emerson College Polling, The Hill and DC News Now showed Hogan tied with one possible strong Democratic opponent (David Trone), with 42% supporting each in a general election matchup and 16% undecided. The survey also showed Hogan leads in a general election matchup with another possible strong Democratic candidate (Angela Alsobrooks) 44% to 37%, with 19% undecided. The Republican primary survey results showed Hogan at 43%, undecided at 43%, and none of the other candidates at more than 9%. All the survey results have a 3% +.– margin of error.

Recently, one conservative candidate from Anne Arundel County withdrew from the Republican primary and endorsed Hogan.

In Larry Sabato’s widely read and influential Political Crystal Ball, J. Miles Coleman wrote, “In response to Hogan’s announcement, we downgraded our rating for Maryland from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic.” That news will energize and mobilize donors who had previously viewed a Democratic win as a given.

Going forward, Hogan still faces at least three obstacles. All are formidable but none are insurmountable.

The first obstacle is Robin Ficker in the Republican primary. Ficker is aggressively appealing to Republican primary voters who may still be angry over some of Hogan’s actions while serving as governor. Those actions include Hogan’s unwavering support for covid lockdown mandates, moderate governing style, criticisms of Donald Trump and Trump supporters, and his refusal to support Dan Cox for governor after Cox defeated Hogan’s endorsed candidate to succeed him in a GOP primary.

To conservative Republican primary voters considering Ficker, Hogan can remind them of a guiding principle of conservative icon William F. Buckley and often repeated by conservative icon Ronald Reagan — support the most conservative candidate … who can win.

The second obstacle is the Democratic candidate for November ramping up a messaging blitz (already launched by Trone and Alsobrooks) that was highly effective in the last midterm elections. That message is all Republican candidates are a grave threat to abortion rights, and all are aligned with Donald Trump.

To all voters with concerns over the future of abortion rights, Hogan can remind them he is on record saying that as a senator, he will not vote for a national abortion ban. He can also tell them he will respect the outcome of a statewide referendum in Maryland on an amendment adding the right to an abortion to the state constitution.

The third obstacle is all of Hogan’s opponents in the primary and general elections, reminding voters about all the reasons Hogan gave when he was strongly encouraged but declined to run against incumbent U.S. Senator Chris Van Hollen.

To all voters concerned about those reasons, Hogan can remind them the public record includes the reasons why he is running now. In reviewing that record it is clear Hogan mentioned “I said I wasn’t going to walk away from politics, I was going to try to be a voice, standing up to try to fix things, and you can’t just sit back and complain about things if you’re not willing to try to make a difference.”

Hogan can say his willingness “to try to make a difference” reflects his acceptance of the call to action in Teddy Roosevelt’s Man in the Arena speech –

It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.

It will be most interesting to see what Larry Hogan’s 2024 campaign strategy and messages will be.

More interesting will be if his messages in this election cycle will resonate with a majority of Maryland voters just as his Change Maryland message did when he was elected governor.

David Reel is a public affairs and public relations consultant who lives in Easton.